Friday, December 23, 2016

Zalmay Khalilzad's THE ENVOY Earns its Place on the Permanent Bookshelf


ISBN 978-1-250-08300-5 from St. Martin’s Press, New York, New York, 2016, $27.99.  Available on Amazon, $17.99. 
 
It’s going to be a long winter so before the January blues set in, go get your copy of THE ENVOY: From Kabul to the White House, My Journey through a Turbulent World.  It’s Zalmay Khalilzad’s memoir, rich in more than mere reflections on his tenures as U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq and the U.N.  Though it would have been enough to put in perspective and give us a bird’s eye view on twenty-plus years of seismic events, American foreign policy, and the makeover of the greater Middle East, this book encompasses so much more.  It is a poignant and often refreshing view of America through the eyes of a young visitor from an ancient and mysterious land.  Of his time as a student in California at age 15 on an AFS exchange trip in 1966, he recounts,
I was deeply impressed by the American talent for organization.  Coming from the more anarchic environment of Afghanistan, I had the impression that in America everything functioned as if it were being carried out by a military organization.  During field trips, the bus rolled up on time, and the kids were ready to go.  The people at our destination were prepared and expecting us.   Arrangements for lunch and drinks had been made and went off without a hitch.  Guides completed their tours with precision.  The bus got us all back to school just as our families were arriving to pick us up.  It was a marvel to watch.
Not only do we get a glimpse of America through his wonder-filled eyes, but we get an in-depth and unorthodox view of his homeland as well. The book is a window to an Afghanistan rich in meaningful family and religious traditions.  It describes a cuisine that features the bounty of the earth and a culture that treasures its children and offers a childhood of splendors - kite flying, sleeping under the stars in summer, and horseback riding to school.  It is a peek at a once-empire most Americans couldn’t find on a map before 1979 when the Soviet invasion made it a marker in the Cold War.  It is a glance at a once treasured land before it became synonymous with names and events that rankle: the Taliban, invasion, occupation, al Qaeda.   After one reads THE ENVOY, Afghanistan won’t simply be the place where Osama Bin Laden plotted the 9/11 attack.

Professor Khalilzad escorts us to these equally distinct Afghanistans in a memoir that layers the tender observations of a sensitive and perceptive boy, the sophisticated and evolving values of a young man processing his life from outside Afghanistan, and the conundrums facing the scholar/policy analyst turned presidential envoy who returns home on his assignments - home being both Afghanistan and his beloved America.   Never neglected in his recollections are his adored family – from his parents and siblings to his wife and sons – or his thoughts on cultural sexism and feminism, people’s decisions in the context of their circumstances, and the tricky co-existence of both antiquity and modernity on this one earth.  This the connective tissue in Zalmay Khalilzad’s memoir and what keeps it real.  This is what makes it a great read not just for the followers of foreign affairs but in general. 
For those who do contemplate national and international security matters, and especially the crafting, instruments and implementation of U.S. foreign policy, THE ENVOY is a telling and textured narrative.   Presented in the first person, it is a rare ticket to front row seats in the theatres of American universities, think-tanks, the White House, compounds and embassies in Afghanistan and Iraq and the United Nations.  It weaves seamlessly in and out of national, tribal, regional and world events on emotional, intuitive, intellectual and professional levels, making the read as easy as it is riveting.  Set up in time periods that read chronologically, this memoir facilitates reading in spurts and allows for the digestion of tremendous detail.  It's an up-close and personal look at the disparate players, complex politics and the unprecedented circumstances that produced U.S. policies, missions, and outcomes in the greater Middle East from Presidents Ronald Wilson Reagan through George W. Bush. 
I refer to Zal Khalilzad as “Professor” because he was mine at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.  At that time, I was one of the very few women in the International Security Policy Studies program, and we felt our minority status – but not in Zal’s course.  There was something unique in his approach to people that was organically egalitarian.  He held a respect for humanity that didn’t carry a banner (which is not unusual to do at my alma mater) but nonetheless modeled it as constantly and naturally as he breathed.  Not until this book did I understand the roots of this.  After reading THE ENVOY, I see his facility for respecting individuals in their own dynamic as his gift.  It explains why he views himself as an optimist while his work echoes the voice of realism.  They are resolved in that he sees clearly the core dynamic of a person or group and then works with great faith to bring them and theirs to their full situational best.  Time and again, he shares his sentiments, humbly and candidly, on these often gear-grinding and Sisyphean-like missions.  About returning to Kabul, he writes,
In the absence of Afghan or international forces in the countryside, warlords were establishing, or reestablishing, their fiefdoms.  Before I was on the ground in Afghanistan, I had sympathized with the idea of maintaining a light footprint, largely because of Afghans' historic xenophobia.  But when I spoke with ordinary Afghans in Mazar and Herat during an early trip in 2002, I began to see how mistaken I was.  People confided that when they saw members of the local militia coming toward them on the street, they tensed up, expecting to be harassed, robbed, or beaten for no reason.  By contrast, when they saw a soldier from a foreign country, they relaxed.  The difficulty was that the United States was working with the warlords.  The warlords had carried the burden of the ground campaign against the Taliban and al Qaeda and, in the absence of anything like an effective national army, were still needed to take on the insurgents.
Descriptions like “highest-ranking Muslim to ever serve in a U.S. administration” do not do justice to the depth or distinction of the special envoy the United States and our associates in the greater Middle East enjoyed in Zalmay Khalilzad.  His life’s journey and service, as revealed in this book, are indelible reminders that no one-line label can come close to capturing the sensibilities, character, values and vision that define an individual.  Nor can it suggest the breadth of the contribution they make.  Indeed, Professor Khalilzad continues to contribute, bringing perspective from his experience to bear on today’s challenges in the region and beyond.  On Page 283, he shares five lessons learned from the American experience in Iraq, and they seem as on point for the incoming 45th American President as for the exiting one.  Number five is one I have heard consistently across my interviews with security experts of all stripes and warrants repeating: “Exercise presidential command.”  Chapter Twenty-Six, A More Dangerous World 2016 and Beyond, is a security manifesto for the United States.  Professor Khalilzad presents a survey of the challenges, threats, and opportunities, as well as the tools, talents, and Achilles’ heel of America as a world power facing powerful shifts in the global arena.   As such, this pearl from 2016 is a timely read and belongs on the bookshelf for the New Year and beyond as well. 

 
 

Sunday, December 4, 2016

The Phone Call Heard 'Round the World: What of the Talk between Presidents Trump and Tsai?

I admit, my first reaction to the news of a break in forty years of American policy was as much to the time span of forty years as to the event itself.  Could this be the beginning of a shift of Biblical proportions?  Hmmm ... I next analogized the happening to a superpower chess match.  While our eyes have been on North Korea as a pawn of China and Russia, could the United States have just moved it's Queen on China's Bishop?  Enough.  It was time to call an expert, so I reached out to Gordon G. Chang, author of The Coming Collapse of China and devoted analyst of Asian security matters.  He has been generous and pivotal in this space and, most recently, speaking to a live audience at our Election Night 2016 Security Summit.  He replied with his characteristic precision and alacrity:
 
"It is possible the phone conversation Friday with Tsai Ing-wen was Trump's opening bid in a complex bargaining with Beijing and that he has no long-term intention to strengthen relations with Taipei, but the Trump advisor who put the call together, Stephen Yates, is a strong proponent of Taiwan.  It is almost certain, therefore, that Yates was trying to steer American policy in Taipei's direction.
What we do know is that the President-elect has broken with almost four decades of Washington policy toward China, and this creates a dynamic that could take on a life of it's own.
 
 



Monday, November 21, 2016

2016 Election Night Calm ... Four Experts Kept Us Focused on Key Security Matters Facing the 45th American President

 
Four experts in different aspects of national and international security did not know, and could not know, who would be elected as the next American President as they spoke to an audience comprised of law enforcement, IT and HR professionals, business-owners and CEOs, U.S. Army veterans, educators, social workers and scholars, all assembled to hear macro-analyses of the dynamics and challenges presented by the global economy, Islamic State, nuclear proliferation and Russian foreign policy.  They convened in Westport, Connecticut, on Tuesday, November 8th for an Election Night 2016 Security Summit, 80 Minutes Around the World: Security Briefings for the 45th POTUS.   Focused on the issues and avoiding politics, each offered a ten-minute briefing to POTUS-Elect 45 and conducted a 5-minute Q&A.

Economist Constance Hunter was the first to the podium flagging trade policy, industrial policy and taxation as three key components of economic security.  Asia-watcher Gordon Chang then took the floor to map out the intricate relationship between China, Iran and North Korea in his talk called, The New Nuclear Nexus. 

Dr. Austin Long, an authority on insurgency and irregular warfare, rose to present The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria: Crucible for the Next American President. Dr. Stephen J. Blank capped off the program with an eye-opening and sobering synopsis of Russia’s War on America 
During this program there was no election coverage and we operated under The Chatham House Rule.  Both worked to facilitate a candid and synergistic exchange of views and perspectives between the experts themselves and between the experts and the audience.  To organize a similar program, or for ideas on speakers and other formats more suitable for your department, meeting or campus, contact Lisa Bernard via email or telephone (203) 293-4741 or at www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime. #ElectionNightSecuritySummit    #ElectionNightSecurityBriefings  SecuritySpeak@PodiumTime


 

 

Friday, October 21, 2016

Just After Reports of Another North Korean Ballistic Missile Test ...

My followers began asking for clarity from an expert on the relationship between China and North Korea's nuclear program.  I asked Gordon Chang, author of Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the World, and internationally respected pundit on security matters in Asia, about this.



With his comprehensive approach and gracious style, Gordon Chang is renowned for his incisive analyses and commentary.  He lived and worked in Shanghai as Counsel to the American law firm Paul Weiss, and earlier in Hong Kong as Partner in the international law firm Baker & McKenzie.  He has briefed the United States CIA, Pentagon and State Department on security developments and he shared this assessment with me this week:

"North Korea has three launchers--theTaepodong-2, the KN-08, and KN-14--that can hit the lower 48 states.  The better view is that the North cannot mate a nuclear warhead to them, but that is only a matter of about three years.  The North Koreans have already put a nuke on top of their intermediate-range Nodong.

Beijing could rein in North Korea, but Chinese leaders do not want to do so because they view America as their main strategic rival.  They find Kim Jong Un's antics useful in keeping us and our allies off balance. 

We could force Beijing into being helpful--by, for example, imposing secondary sanctions on Chinese banks and enterprises--but so far there have been only tentative moves to do so.  The U.S. sanctions on Dandong Hongxiang industrial, imposed last month, show attitudes in the American capital are changing.  They are changing because an unstable Kim Jong Un in control of the world's most destructive weapons is presenting American policymakers with little choice."

N.B. Gordon Chang will be presenting The New Nuclear Politics: China, Iran and North Korea, at the Election Night 2016 Security Summit, 80 Minutes Around the World: Security Briefings for the Next American President, in Westport, CT, on November 8th.

 

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

With News of the Iraqi Effort to Take Back Mosul from the Islamic State ...

 
I asked Dr. Austin Long, authority on international security matters and particularly urban operations in counterinsurgency, to put this in perspective for us.  He replied:  "The long awaited offensive to retake Mosul is a welcome sign of progress in the war on the Islamic State but should not be heralded as the beginning of the end. The loss of Mosul will hurt the group but not fatally.  We should always remember that retaking Fallujah in 2004 was seen as a major sign of progress but two years later Al Qaeda in Iraq, the Islamic State's predecessor, was stronger than ever."
Hear Dr. Long on Monday, November 7, 2016, at 7:00 p.m. at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield, CT.  He delivers, The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria: Crucible for the Next American President.  For details: LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net or www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.

Saturday, October 1, 2016

October is National Cyber Security Awareness Month and Robert Bigman, Former CISO of the United States CIA - under whose watch the Agency was never hacked – shares his thoughts with Lisa Bernard

 
I arrived in Arlington, Virginia, at News Channel 8 Studios to meet Robert "Bob" Bigman before he went on the air as Francis Rose’s guest on Government Matters. From the get-go, I sensed the “quiet celebrity” he enjoys among those in-the-know in Washington, D.C. He is the man who served for thirty years at the Central Intelligence Agency – most of the latter years as Chief Information Security Officer (CISO).  Simply put, he kept the CIA’s data secure.  Now, at a time when most Americans – private citizens and public officials – feel the threat or pain of being hacked, Bob's insights seem particularly pertinent and his achievements especially notable.  I was delighted that this down-to-earth professional – who for so long was under the radar – was graciously coming into the spotlight to share his sense of this with us.  What he conveyed was as inspiring as it was stirring.  His cheerful manner and serene demeanor bespoke a guarded “could-be-done” attitude about recovering the upper hand in the cyber security challenges we face – “guarded” being the operative word.  My takeaway was that we Americans can combat these threats provided 1) our resolve comes with calm, candor and clarity about the nature of the technologies and the humans who engage them and 2) that we have devoted leadership at the organizational and national levels.
LISA BERNARD: On one thing all cyber-security experts agree: human behavior and psychology loom large as key factors.  We are a nation of e-consumers, wed to convenience and beginning to integrate into the job force a generation raised on the efficiency of their smart phones.  Bob, what will it take - new technology or a crisis - to shift the pendulum from user-myopia to individual vigilance? 
 
LISA BERNARD: We are electing ourselves a new Commander-in-Chief next month and although it is now common knowledge that the software we use is outdated - even in our nuclear missile systems -  we hear little about this from the candidates. Just how outdated is government software and why are antiquated systems still in use? 
 
LISA BERNARD: Many of my followers are CISOs themselves or CEOs who rely on them.  With the proliferation of mobile devices and the trend toward super-computing what advice can you give them?
 
 
LISA BERNARD:  If our next POTUS appointed you "Tsar of Cyber Security," with all the resources you would need to set our nation on a modern and safe course, what would be your first priority?
 
 
LISA BERNARD: Since leaving government service,  as a consultant,you have been moving the dial, persuading firms to move toward more managed and isolated networks.  In the private sector, where the internet is like oxygen, how are you doing this? 
 
ROBERT BIGMAN: The really bad news is that even if you wanted to stay disconnected, increasingly, technology and the evolution of your world will connect you.  The marketplace has already determined that you're going to stay connected to the internet.  So what can you do?  Start with your biggest risk - which is how you and your devices - computers, mobile devices, smart phones - how they actually connect to the internet. Know that to ameliorate this risk, you just can't simply any longer rely on commercial capabilities like firewalls, modems and router protection and control lists.  There's a collection of simple things you can do. First, I recommend that you NOT use commercial applications like Windows or Adobe. Instead use alternative operating systems like Ubuntu and Opera as a browser. 
 
 
LISA BERNARD: What products are now available to make this "shift" possible and attractive in a culture that is hyper-connected?
 
ROBERT BIGMAN: There are probably very few products that I would recommend where you can say that if you buy this product that you can secure your data completely and your don’t have to worry any more.  In fact, there are no products like that despite what vendors will tell you.  What I find is the biggest problem is that organizations simply don’t understand the risks to their systems, their networks, and their data and they too often – as a result of attending the RSA conference, the Black Hat conference, the DefCon conference – they too often fall into the trap of using technology to solve very complex problems that require people issues, process issues, policy issues and yes, some technology issues.  But trying to address them with just technology is the number one mistake.  And I know the vendors don’t want you to hear that message, but the fact is that unless you have a cyber-security program and that you have as the component parts of governance, IT management, public policies and processes, no matter how much technology you buy, you’ll still get beat.  And every event, every incident I’ve been involved where we’ve investigated – unauthorized access, penetration, hacking, unauthorized use of data – all involve the process and policy issues violations as ever as they involve misuse or improper technology.
###
 
Bob Bigman is available for briefings, talks and workshops via Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak, LLC. See his bio at www.SecuritySpeak.net.  To discuss the particulars of hosting him, phone (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.
 
 
 
 
 

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Russian Foreign Policy Turns on a DIME (Diplomacy, Information, Military, Economics): An Interview with Dr. Stephen J. Blank

 

The weather was just the first treat on July 19th when I arrived in Washington, D.C., at the Capitol Hill Club on that cool, dry and sunny morning to hear Dr. Stephen J. Blank deliver an address, Russia’s Global Probes. Like a luxury cruise ship, Dr. Blank navigated his remarks with expert engineering, using sophisticated instruments that work below deck to produce a smooth sail and memorable journey. His talk docked in three parts of the globe – Latin America, the Middle East and Europe. In each port of Russian activity, he delivered his audience reality-checks on Russian history in the region, Vladimir Putin’s objectives, Russia’s intrinsic nature, and the problems for U.S. national security with projecting American values into the interpretation of Russia’s undertakings. With the temporal breadth of a skilled historian of Russian, Soviet and post-Soviet affairs, Dr. Blank portrayed a crisp yet comprehensive snapshot of the world today through the Russian lens. He deftly decoded Russian behavior and Vladimir Putin’s positions, leaving his listeners sobered and empowered with a ready frame of reference for understanding and interpreting Russian diplomatic, information, military and economic operations. 

 
Dr. Blank and I then returned to his office at the American Foreign Policy Council for an interview. His generosity continued. A former professor of Russian National Security Studies and U.S. National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, he rolled up his sleeves and got to work informally as if my viewers were students there with him in his private office hours. Here are excerpts.
 
BERNARD:  I heard U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry assert that "nowhere is there a greater hotbed or incubator for these terrorists than in Syria," as he wrapped up meetings in Moscow with Russian President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov exploring U.S.-Russian cooperation to end the five-year civil war there. Reports are conflicting about the outcome of their talks and the possibility at all for military cooperation and intelligence-sharing. As an old Cold Warrior, it's not my first instinct to imagine us "sharing" intelligence with the Russians or "cooperating" militarily. Yet, the Syrian situation is compelling.  What's your take on all this? 
 
 
BERNARD: My clients at SecuritySpeak include global investors, businesspeople and entrepreneurs.  Some are exploring markets and opportunities in the energy and other resource-rich regions of the former USSR.   How stable is Central Asia today?


 
BERNARD: My clients at SecuritySpeak are concerned about threats like North Korean missile strikes and cyber-attacks.  What do you see as the Russian role in these scenarios?
BERNARD: In four months, we Americans will elect ourselves a new President and Commander-in-Chief.  What frame of reference can you offer him or her for advancing American and global security interests?

 
BERNARD:  Thank you, Steve, for your insights, time and energy.  I know you have an interview with Romanian TV journalists at noon and you're only just back from delivering a master class in Brussels last week.  It was a pleasure attending your address this morning at the Capitol Hill Club and speaking with you here now.
 
To arrange a presentation by Dr. Blank for your firm, association or university, contact Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak, LLC at 203.293.4741 or LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.