With News of the Iraqi Effort to Take Back Mosul from the Islamic State ...

 

I asked Dr. Austin Long, authority on international security matters and particularly urban operations in counterinsurgency, to put this in perspective for us.  He replied:  "The long awaited offensive to retake Mosul is a welcome sign of progress in the war on the Islamic State but should not be heralded as the beginning of the end. The loss of Mosul will hurt the group but not fatally.  We should always remember that retaking Fallujah in 2004 was seen as a major sign of progress but two years later Al Qaeda in Iraq, the Islamic State's predecessor, was stronger than ever."

Hear Dr. Long on Monday, November 7, 2016, at 7:00 p.m. at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield, CT.  He delivers, The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria: Crucible for the Next American President.  For details: LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net or www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.

ISIS: Crisis or Crucible?

Last week’s shift in White House policy regarding ISIS in Afghanistan occasioned me to interview Dr. Austin G. Long, a specialist in counterinsurgency and irregular warfare.  We met up at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies.  Dr. Long was an analyst and adviser to the U.S. military in Iraq from 2007 to 2008 and to the Combined Forces Special Operations Component Command in Kabul, Afghanistan in 2011 and to NATO Special Operations Component Command/Special Operations Joint Task Force in 2013.   I had four questions for him.

BERNARD:  Austin, American and British news agencies report that thanks to international air strikes ISIS has lost as much as forty per cent of the territory it held in Iraq and twenty per cent of the ground it commandeered in Syria.  How meaningful are these numbers and how do they translate into actual degradation of ISIS?

 

BERNARD:  As I mentioned in my set-up, just this week The White House gave the Pentagon a green light to target ISIS in Afghanistan, suggesting – based on the President’s State of the Union message—that there is a threat coming from ISIS in Afghanistan – a threat to us here in the homeland.  What kind of threat does “ISIL–K” pose to the United States? 

 

BERNARD:  Syria, Libya, Afghanistan … failed states where ISIS has exploited the situation.  Where next do you see a “failed state” ISIS might seize? 

 

BERNARD:  There’s a spectrum of thinking here in the U.S. – all sincere, it seems to me – on how to rid the world of ISIS:  destroy it militarily, counter it ideologically, starve it financially.  Given what you know about how ISIS’s motivation and nature, what’s your sense of what would get the job done?

 

BERNARD:  Austin, I thank you for your time and sharing of your insights in such a concise manner.  I’ve been in the audience when you’ve made full-length presentations and moderated panels and this format, I see, is yet another forum in which we can learn so much from you.  It is a pleasure to represent you at Lisa Bernard’s SecuritySpeak and I note that those who wish to host you for talks and briefings can contact me directly by calling (203) 293-4741 or emailing  LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net and view your full profile at www.SecuritySpeak.net.