America in the Claws of the Russian Bear: Clarity After Helsinki from Internationally Renowned Authority on Russian Foreign Policy, Dr. Stephen J. Blank



Photo Credit: Slate.com 



Last week in our pre-summit interview, the venerable Dr. Stephen J. Blank set realistic expectations for the issues to be raised by U.S. President Donald Trump and the responses and rhetoric likely to come from Russian President Vladimir Putin at their July 16, 2018 summit in Finland.  The themes explored in our interview presaged the hazards and disconnects that contributed to the catastrophe in Helsinki - and that is no surprise to those who follow Dr. Blank.  (https://securiitybriefs.blogspot.com/2018/07/calibrating-expectations-for-trump.html)  He is a University of Pennsylvania and University of Chicago-educated historian of the Russian tsarist, Soviet and post-communist eras and has a breadth and depth of insight that is second to none among the world's analysts of Russian foreign policy and the implications for U.S.-Russia relations and international security more broadly.  He served for twenty-plus years as a Professor of National Security Studies at the U.S. Army War College and today is Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C.  Having studied and travelled extensively across the former USSR and with a professional command of the Russian language, Stephen Blank is a meticulous analyst of Russian events, players and policies and his encyclopedic knowledge of things Russian and stellar assessments have him speaking to civilian and military audiences across the Americas, Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

I am honored to represent Steve Blank for speaking engagements and welcome him to my interview chair at historic moments like this - the debacle that was President Trump's performance in Helsinki and the conquest that was Vladimir Putin's.  I met with Steve again on Wednesday in his Washington, D.C. office under the weight of unprecedented disappointment in Monday's events.  As ever, he synthesized that which was brought to bear from the history, personalities and dynamics that got us to this somber point in U.S.- Russia relations.  One by one, or taken as a whole, the clips below escort us from the surreal that was Helsinki to the most practical security realities facing America today - and for the foreseeable future - in dealing with the bear that is Russia ruled by Vladimir Putin.

 



American Presidents come and go every four or eight years and Vladimir Putin seems to take advantage of this cycle and each President's palpable eagerness to improve U.S.-Russia relations.  What are likely to be Putin's next moves to project or expand Russian influence given his strategic objectives and his read and play of POTUS 45?

  





 

Last Friday the U.S. Department of Justice issued its indictment charging twelve Russians with a "sustained effort" to hack Democrats' emails and the Democratic National Committee's computers.  (https://www.justice.gov/file/1080281/download)  All twelve Russian nationals charged were members of the GRU - the Russian military intelligence service.  Why was the GRU deployed for this mission?

 

 

How likely is Vladimir Putin to take President Trump's whitewashing of Russian interference in the 2016 election as license to begin cyber-interference and even disruption of other U.S. systems and activities - say banking and financial services, media and/or communications? 



 

It's well documented that many who trespass against Vladimir Putin find themselves or their reputations assassinated.  As we Americans and our allies strain to understand President Trump's embrace of President Putin, is it out of the question that he [President Trump] and/or his beloved Czech-American and Slovenian-American children are under threat from the Kremlin?  

 

  



At Monday's press conference in Helsinki, Vladimir Putin reported that he spoke with President Trump about U.S. and Russian cooperation to combat the threat of "transnational crime."  With Russia so deeply involved in sex-trafficking across Eastern Europe, illegal drug and arms running in South America, identity theft and disinformation campaigns in North America and Europe, what is his motive for suggesting this?  It's as brazen and bizarre as his offer to co-investigate the hacking of the DNC - or is it? 

 

 

You've served for decades as a consultant to companies and governments on Russian and Eurasian energy matters.  Put Nord Stream 2 in perspective as a matter of international security. 

 





How is it that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is so comfortable with her country's reliance on Russian-supplied energy given her history with Vladimir Putin in particular and Russia and the former Soviet Union general?



What do individual and institutional investors need to keep in mind regarding Gazprom and other Russian energy companies? 

 



At the press conference following the private meeting on Monday between Presidents Trump and Putin there was mention of their discussions about banning weapons in space.  Beyond the Outer Space Treaty to which the United States, the Chinese and Russia (former USSR) are all signatories, what is Putin gaming for here besides the appearance of "great power status?" 

 



Realistically, where can U.S. - Russia relations go from here and how do we get there?



 

Notes: 

"Kompromat" is Russian for "compromising material"- that is information that could be used to damage the reputation of a public figure, create negative publicity for a politician or for blackmail of an individual.  Kopromat is held by Russian agents to ensure loyalty. 

 

Angela Merkel was born and lived in East Germany throughout and until the end of the Cold War and the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990.  Vladimir Putin served as an agent of the KGB in East Germany from 1985 until the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. 

 

 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm devoted to matters of international security.  Experts like Dr. Stephen J. Blank offer briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring analyses and understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To secure Dr. Blank for your next program reach out to  (203) 293-4741 or LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.   Learn more at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and follow us www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.