America in the Claws of the Russian Bear: Clarity After Helsinki from Internationally Renowned Authority on Russian Foreign Policy, Dr. Stephen J. Blank



Photo Credit: Slate.com 



Last week in our pre-summit interview, the venerable Dr. Stephen J. Blank set realistic expectations for the issues to be raised by U.S. President Donald Trump and the responses and rhetoric likely to come from Russian President Vladimir Putin at their July 16, 2018 summit in Finland.  The themes explored in our interview presaged the hazards and disconnects that contributed to the catastrophe in Helsinki - and that is no surprise to those who follow Dr. Blank.  (https://securiitybriefs.blogspot.com/2018/07/calibrating-expectations-for-trump.html)  He is a University of Pennsylvania and University of Chicago-educated historian of the Russian tsarist, Soviet and post-communist eras and has a breadth and depth of insight that is second to none among the world's analysts of Russian foreign policy and the implications for U.S.-Russia relations and international security more broadly.  He served for twenty-plus years as a Professor of National Security Studies at the U.S. Army War College and today is Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C.  Having studied and travelled extensively across the former USSR and with a professional command of the Russian language, Stephen Blank is a meticulous analyst of Russian events, players and policies and his encyclopedic knowledge of things Russian and stellar assessments have him speaking to civilian and military audiences across the Americas, Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

I am honored to represent Steve Blank for speaking engagements and welcome him to my interview chair at historic moments like this - the debacle that was President Trump's performance in Helsinki and the conquest that was Vladimir Putin's.  I met with Steve again on Wednesday in his Washington, D.C. office under the weight of unprecedented disappointment in Monday's events.  As ever, he synthesized that which was brought to bear from the history, personalities and dynamics that got us to this somber point in U.S.- Russia relations.  One by one, or taken as a whole, the clips below escort us from the surreal that was Helsinki to the most practical security realities facing America today - and for the foreseeable future - in dealing with the bear that is Russia ruled by Vladimir Putin.

 



American Presidents come and go every four or eight years and Vladimir Putin seems to take advantage of this cycle and each President's palpable eagerness to improve U.S.-Russia relations.  What are likely to be Putin's next moves to project or expand Russian influence given his strategic objectives and his read and play of POTUS 45?

  





 

Last Friday the U.S. Department of Justice issued its indictment charging twelve Russians with a "sustained effort" to hack Democrats' emails and the Democratic National Committee's computers.  (https://www.justice.gov/file/1080281/download)  All twelve Russian nationals charged were members of the GRU - the Russian military intelligence service.  Why was the GRU deployed for this mission?

 

 

How likely is Vladimir Putin to take President Trump's whitewashing of Russian interference in the 2016 election as license to begin cyber-interference and even disruption of other U.S. systems and activities - say banking and financial services, media and/or communications? 



 

It's well documented that many who trespass against Vladimir Putin find themselves or their reputations assassinated.  As we Americans and our allies strain to understand President Trump's embrace of President Putin, is it out of the question that he [President Trump] and/or his beloved Czech-American and Slovenian-American children are under threat from the Kremlin?  

 

  



At Monday's press conference in Helsinki, Vladimir Putin reported that he spoke with President Trump about U.S. and Russian cooperation to combat the threat of "transnational crime."  With Russia so deeply involved in sex-trafficking across Eastern Europe, illegal drug and arms running in South America, identity theft and disinformation campaigns in North America and Europe, what is his motive for suggesting this?  It's as brazen and bizarre as his offer to co-investigate the hacking of the DNC - or is it? 

 

 

You've served for decades as a consultant to companies and governments on Russian and Eurasian energy matters.  Put Nord Stream 2 in perspective as a matter of international security. 

 





How is it that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is so comfortable with her country's reliance on Russian-supplied energy given her history with Vladimir Putin in particular and Russia and the former Soviet Union general?



What do individual and institutional investors need to keep in mind regarding Gazprom and other Russian energy companies? 

 



At the press conference following the private meeting on Monday between Presidents Trump and Putin there was mention of their discussions about banning weapons in space.  Beyond the Outer Space Treaty to which the United States, the Chinese and Russia (former USSR) are all signatories, what is Putin gaming for here besides the appearance of "great power status?" 

 



Realistically, where can U.S. - Russia relations go from here and how do we get there?



 

Notes: 

"Kompromat" is Russian for "compromising material"- that is information that could be used to damage the reputation of a public figure, create negative publicity for a politician or for blackmail of an individual.  Kopromat is held by Russian agents to ensure loyalty. 

 

Angela Merkel was born and lived in East Germany throughout and until the end of the Cold War and the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990.  Vladimir Putin served as an agent of the KGB in East Germany from 1985 until the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. 

 

 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm devoted to matters of international security.  Experts like Dr. Stephen J. Blank offer briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring analyses and understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To secure Dr. Blank for your next program reach out to  (203) 293-4741 or LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.   Learn more at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and follow us www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.

 

 

 

 



Understanding the Solid Relationship Between Israel and Russia

 

Photo Credit: The Times of Israel



This week marks the 73rd anniversary of the defeat of German Nazism and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin to mark the occasion.  Their diplomatic relationship - and the larger dynamic of Israel-Russia relations - are curious to so many Americans given the Russian patronage of Iran and the enmity between Israel and Iran.  For some perspective, I put the question to Dr. Stephen J. Blank, Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington D.C.  Dr. Blank is a historian of Russian foreign and military policies and his expertise spans the tsarist, Soviet and post-communist periods.  Ever generous with his time and expertise, he shared seven key reasons for what he called "the solidity of this relationship."

 

• First, Putin personally appears to have good feelings about Israel and Jews and Russian policy formally eschews anti-Semitism - though there is still a fair amount of  it in society and he is willing to use it in measured doses for his domestic needs. 

• Second,  Russian elite respect Israel's military-economic-technological prowess and know that Israel is a channel to Washington. 

• Third, there are thriving trade and investment relations between the two countries - even to the point where Israel has sold weapons to Russia. 

• Fourth, Israel respects Russian red lines and avoids actions that are provocative to her. If Israel has to cross a line it informs Moscow first.  This is something Putin et al. appreciate because it shows Israeli respect for Russian sensitivities and interests. 

• Fifth, Moscow knows that wars against Israel end badly for Arabs and bring the U.S. back into the Middle East in a big way. 

• Sixth,  there is some belief that the Russian Aliyah - the group of Russian Jews who have settled in and become citizens of Israel - is in some sense "our people" and they wish to preserve that tie.  They also understand what the USSR lost by pursuing anti-Semitic policies. 

• Seventh, it is critical to Moscow's Middle East policies and its sense of those policies that it be able to talk candidly to all parties and not be excessively identified with any one state's interests.  This also includes Israel precisely because of the many unsettled security issues in the region."

In hearing Dr. Blank's incisive comments I am reminded of the salient and sage words of another distinguished alumnus of University of Pennsylvania, Charles Dudley Warner, who observed that "[p]olitics makes strange bedfellows." 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm devoted to matters of international security.  Experts like Dr. Stephen J. Blank offer briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring analyses and understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To secure a speaker for your program reach out to  (203) 293-4741 or LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.   Learn more at  www.SecuritySpeak.net. 



Well Beyond Unnerving: The Poisoning of a British Citizen by Russian Agents

 

Photo Credit: Leader-Telegraph

The use of nerve agents against Russians-turned-citizens-of-democracies touches me personally.  In the mid-1980s, I served as the first Russian-speaking staff member and first Program Director at The Jamestown Foundation which worked to acculturate high-ranking Soviet and East European defectors into American society after their C.I.A debriefings. I was the point person for these brave men and women who lived under death sentences from the former USSR working to bring their insights to academics, policymakers, the press and concerned citizens by bringing forward their books, speeches, media appearances and Congressional testimonies.  As well, I worked with them to become United States citizens and live as openly and productively in our free society as possible for their circumstances and the realities of the Cold War.  We lost not one.  Now, at least in Europe, citizenship in a democracy is no longer an understood "hands off" to Russian operatives.  And the assassination methods are grotesque.  For the bigger picture of Putin's mob boss methods and crime syndicates, the following is a must read from Dr. Stephen J. Blank:

 

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/from-russia-with-hate

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm devoted to matters of security and crisis management. Experts in these areas offer briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring analyses and understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life. (203) 293-4741. www.SecuritySpeak.net. 





 

DEMOCRACY: Stories from the Long Road to Freedom by Condoleezza Rice, Earns its Place on the Permanent Bookshelf



DEMOCRACY: Stories from the Long Road to Freedom by Condoleezza Rice, 482 pp. published by Twelve, an imprint of Grand Central Publishing, May 2017. Hardcover ISBN: 978-1-4555-4018-1. Ebook ISBN: 978-1-4555-4019-8. Signed edition ISBN: 987-1-5387-5997-4. $35.00 U.S. Available on Amazon. 

Hands down, this is my choice for the 2017 contribution to our understanding and pursuit of security. Citizen, scholar, CEO or policymaker, this long lens survey of emergent, maturing and failed democracy in nine countries and regions across the world provides both food for thought and frames of reference for the numerous news alerts, political hiccups and trickles of information that come at us constantly.  If you want a handle on the conundrum of Russian democracy, it is yours in a chapter that is as compelling a read about personalities and proclivities as it is analytical and instructive.  If you are baffled by the paucity of official support for the ninety two percent of Kurds who voted for independence from Iraq in September 2017, Dr. Rice's chapter on the Middle East will provide you an appreciation for their catch-22 of competence, resources and geography.  And if you feel swept up in, or swept aside by, the divisiveness in American politics, the very first chapter makes the case that the perfection of democracy in the U.S. has consistently been inconsistent, imperfect, sometimes violent, rarely smooth and yet, remarkably stable for the institutions the Founders built.  In a word, there's something here for everyone and the organization of this comprehensive work makes for easy access to one's interests.



Within these 450+ pages is an appraisal of a concept articulated in four of Condoleezza Rice's compelling voices - as an authoritative analyst, advocate, raconteur and enthusiast.  Through her  scholarship at Stanford University and her empirical observations as U.S. National Security Advisor and U.S. Secretary of State, we see that there are elastic expressions of democracy beyond the American experience.  Democracy has taken hold across cultures and countries whose histories contain no hint of democratic philosophy or behavior.  We see the areas of the world where varying degrees, experiments, emulations and aspects of democracy as we know it are in progress; witness the 2010 elections in Iraq and the 2010 promulgation of a constitution in Kenya.  And we see how regional stability and security are enhanced for the presence of democratic nations.  On page 432, Dr. Rice declares

There is both a moral and practical case for democracy promotion.  In the long arc of history, we know that democracies don't fight each other.  The "democratic peace" is observable.  No one today is sorry that the United States helped build a democratic Germany and Japan after World War II.  Both had been aggressors against their neighbors and there was no guarantee that they would not be again.  Neither country had sustained experience with democracy and it took time  for institutions to take root.  But we stood alongside them, and now they help to form the foundation for international peace and prosperity.

There is a vitality about this work that grips us spiritually and emotionally as well as intellectually.  Portions read like a memoir as Condoleezza Rice's own journey is, in and of itself, a testament to the dynamics of American democracy - from her childhood in segregated Alabama, to her studies in the former Soviet Union, to her professorship at Stanford, to her service as the first black woman in the posts of U.S. National Security Advisor and U.S. Secretary of State.  And her personal passages inform her investigation.  Her keen assessments and the reality checks they suggest are present from the start.  On page ten she debunks what she refers to as "the myth of democratic culture" and asserts

No nationality or ethnic group lacks the DNA to come to terms with this paradox. Over the years, many people have tried to invoke "cultural explanations" to assert that some societies lack what it takes to establish or sustain democracy. But this a myth that has fallen to the reality of democracy's universal appeal ... It was once thought that Latin Americans were more suited for caudillos than presidents; that Africans were just too tribal; that Confucian values conflicted with the tenets of self-rule. Years before that Germans were thought to be too martial or too subservient, and - of course - the descendants of slaves were too "childlike" to care about the right to vote ... Those racist views are refuted by stable democracies in places as diverse as Chile, Ghana, South Korea and across Europe ....



Flowing through the brain food in this keeper are personal anecdotes that burrow deep into our hearts.  They remind us that there are real people behind the democratic institutions and the procedural outcomes that make news - human beings and their stories that tell the big picture of the progress for humanity that democracy alone nurtures and protects.  These anecdotes offer us reasons for patience and perspective on the timetable of democracy's progress.  From the Epilogue:

Years later, sitting in our first meeting with Prime Minister Tony Blair, I was heartened by something he said: "I look at the two of you and I ask whether this could happen in Great Britain. And I say, not just yet." He was referring to the African American secretary of state, Colin Powell, and the African American national security advisor, Condi Rice, sitting on either side of the president of the United States ... Blair was not the only one to notice. President Lula daSilva of Brazil talked to me about America's journey. "I wanted to be sure to have Afro-Brazilians in my cabinet," he said. Upon taking office, he named four to his cabinet, as well as the first to the Supreme Court ... These were times when America's own democratic journey sent a positive message ... And then there was Ben Franklin looking down on us from the magnificent portrait painted by David Martin in 1767. What would old Ben think of this? I thought silently as President Bush made remarks. Then, Ruth Bader Ginsburg - a Jewish woman and Supreme Court Justice - asked me to raise my hand. "I do solemnly swear to protect and defend the Constitution of the United States ....

In the United States, the 2016 elections were catalytic to fierce debates, demonstrations and revelations concerning the endurance, integrity and dependability of our American institutions of democracy.  In a post scriptum entitled "2016," Dr. Rice succinctly separates out the issues, concerns and trends in not only the U.S. but in other mature democracies.  In her characteristic humility and clarity she offers a compass for moving forward smartly and sensitively.  Whether you read this book in your professional stead or for your personal enrichment, "2016" is a solid place to start.

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm devoted to matters of national, cyber and global security and crisis management. Experts in these areas offer briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring unbiased analyses and understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life. (203) 293-4741. www.SecuritySpeak.net. 

Lights, Camera, Action: Two Angles on Vladimir Putin this Sunday, June 4, 2017, 7:00 p.m. E.T.



Photo Credit from StopFake.org

Heads up TV journalism fans and those concerned with American and Russian politics and relations. I urge you to view two broadcasts airing, ironically, in the same time slot on Sunday evening, June 4, 2017 at 7:00 p.m.  ET.  One is the venerable 60 Minutes (CBS) on which a story about the “mysterious attacks on the lives of Russian activists” will lead.  The other is Sunday Night with Megyn Kelly, (NBC), the premier episode, featuring the stalwart Megyn Kelly’s interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  As an American Independent (politically speaking) and a disciple of Realpolitik—particularly where Soviet-turned -Russian rulers are concerned—I  expect that the veneer of Vladimir Putin’s carefully constructed image and well-orchestrated public persona will be unglued before us on two fronts.   We as a nation need clarity on him, his means and his objectives in order to assess our own vulnerabilities and possibilities at this critical time in our still very young democracy’s trajectory. 

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/putin-critic-says-hes-one-of-the-lucky-ones-im-still-here/
http://www.nbcnews.com/video/sunday-megyn-kelly-s-one-on-one-with-russian-president-vladimir-putin-959185475684

The Russians Are Coming? The Russians Are Coming!

 

To be sure, the reaction from people in and beyond Groton and New London, Connecticut to the sighting of a Russian spy vessel sitting thirty miles off their coast and the U.S. Naval Submarine Base last month spanned as wide as those in the Norman Jewison comedy film, The Russians are Coming!  The Russians are Coming! Locals voiced their concerns and opinions at a town meeting.  On Facebook, folks wondered if they should keep their children home from school.  Retired navy commanders, American submariners, CT lawmakers and elected officials calmed nerves and offered threat assessments and possibilities spanning the gamut from “this is nothing new” to “Putin is testing the resolve of the new American President” to “yet another Russian aggression.”  A resident of coastal Connecticut myself, I certainly noted the sighting and couldn’t shrug it off.  After musing about it with a colleague, I went to my local library for the DVD, The Russians are Coming! The Russians are Coming!  Curiously enough, there was quite a wait list for the 1966 farce that parodies Cold War concerns.   

Days ago, just as my turn to rent the DVD came up, that same ship, the Viktor Leonov, was spotted twenty miles south of the U.S. Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay in Georgia.   That’s when I reached out to Dr. Stephen J. Blank, internationally renowned authority on Russian military and foreign policies, for a better sense of Russia’s motives in sending this 300 foot-long ship with surveillance equipment that can intercept radar, radio and other electronic signals.  Unlike the guileless submarine crew in the comedy, The Russians are Coming! the Russians aboard the Viktor Leonov are not sneaking an irresistible and innocent “peek” at America with wide-eyed curiosity.  And “spying” seems too vague a term to be useful to describe what it really happening as this ship traverses our coast, albeit in international waters.  As ever, Dr. Blank’s informed analysis put it all in perspective and I share it with you here:

The appearance of the Russian vessel off the US submarine base at Kings Bay, Georgia is not merely another example of Russian surveillance of our submarine capability or another attempt to send a psychological message that its subs can get within striking range of the continental United States.  Rather it is also part of an evolving strategy that appears to be intelligence and combat preparation for a possible contingency of a protracted war with the U.S. when Russian subs will have a mission of interdicting U.S. naval vessels and submarines en route to Europe and/or cutting communication cables with Europe.  If seen in tandem with recent military moves, these submarine sightings, aerial, and naval probes of the U.S. and our allies, suggests a mounting concern in Russia that it will have to fight a protracted war with NATO.  Indeed, the scope of Russia's comprehensive information warfare against the U.S. and Europe already indicates that Moscow deems itself to be in a "Cold War" type scenario with NATO.

Dr. Stephen J. Blank is available for talks, lectures and briefings through Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak, LLC.  (203) 293-4741.  LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net. 

 

 



Russian Foreign Policy Turns on a DIME (Diplomacy, Information, Military, Economics): An Interview with Dr. Stephen J. Blank

 

The weather was just the first treat on July 19^th when I arrived in Washington, D.C., at the Capitol Hill Club on that cool, dry and sunny morning to hear Dr. Stephen J. Blank deliver an address, Russia’s Global Probes. Like a luxury cruise ship, Dr. Blank navigated his remarks with expert engineering, using sophisticated instruments that work below deck to produce a smooth sail and memorable journey. His talk docked in three parts of the globe – Latin America, the Middle East and Europe. In each port of Russian activity, he delivered his audience reality-checks on Russian history in the region, Vladimir Putin’s objectives, Russia’s intrinsic nature, and the problems for U.S. national security with projecting American values into the interpretation of Russia’s undertakings. With the temporal breadth of a skilled historian of Russian, Soviet and post-Soviet affairs, Dr. Blank portrayed a crisp yet comprehensive snapshot of the world today through the Russian lens. He deftly decoded Russian behavior and Vladimir Putin’s positions, leaving his listeners sobered and empowered with a ready frame of reference for understanding and interpreting Russian diplomatic, information, military and economic operations. 

 

Dr. Blank and I then returned to his office at the American Foreign Policy Council for an interview. His generosity continued. A former professor of Russian National Security Studies and U.S. National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, he rolled up his sleeves and got to work informally as if my viewers were students there with him in his private office hours. Here are excerpts.

 

BERNARD:  I heard U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry assert that "nowhere is there a greater hotbed or incubator for these terrorists than in Syria," as he wrapped up meetings in Moscow with Russian President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov exploring U.S.-Russian cooperation to end the five-year civil war there. Reports are conflicting about the outcome of their talks and the possibility at all for military cooperation and intelligence-sharing. As an old Cold Warrior, it's not my first instinct to imagine us "sharing" intelligence with the Russians or "cooperating" militarily. Yet, the Syrian situation is compelling.  What's your take on all this? 

 

 

BERNARD: My clients at SecuritySpeak include global investors, businesspeople and entrepreneurs.  Some are exploring markets and opportunities in the energy and other resource-rich regions of the former USSR.   How stable is Central Asia today?



 

BERNARD: My clients at SecuritySpeak are concerned about threats like North Korean missile strikes and cyber-attacks.  What do you see as the Russian role in these scenarios?

BERNARD: In four months, we Americans will elect ourselves a new President and Commander-in-Chief.  What frame of reference can you offer him or her for advancing American and global security interests?



 

BERNARD:  Thank you, Steve, for your insights, time and energy.  I know you have an interview with Romanian TV journalists at noon and you're only just back from delivering a master class in Brussels last week.  It was a pleasure attending your address this morning at the Capitol Hill Club and speaking with you here now.

 

To arrange a presentation by Dr. Blank for your firm, association or university, contact Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak, LLC at 203.293.4741 or LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net. 

 

 

 





Putin in Play?

Stephen Blank, Ph.D.

I had the pleasure of interviewing internationally known Russia specialist, Dr. Stephen Blank, now a Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C., and previously a Professor of National Security Studies at the U.S. Army War College.  I’ve known Steve for many years and worked with him at Foreign Affairs Speakers Bureau.  I welcome him today to my interview chair.

BERNARD:  Steve, help me understand  … When we see Russian President Putin playing a leadership role with the destruction of chemical weapons in Syria, the bombing campaign against ISIS, the incursion into Ukraine and his deepening relationship with Iran, the old Cold Warrior in me senses an imperialist mission.    On the other hand, knowing how ailing the Russian economy and the Russian defense industry are, I see a clever and greedy tactician whose weapons systems sales make money for him and his cronies.   Which is it – Putin as a Peter the Great-type strategist expanding the Russian empire or Putin the opportunistic capitalist seizing markets for his military wares?

BLANK:  To answer this question it is essential to grasp that there is no necessary contradiction between strategy and tactics.  Only in the U.S. media and political class, neither of whom grasp the difference between the two and use the terms promiscuously, does it seem that Putin is just a tactician and not necessarily a good one.  To be sure, Russia has incurred serious and unexpected costs that will be long lasting.  But from Putin’s perspective, which is the only that counts for him, he has won.  Crimea is his, Eastern Ukraine is under his control and the Ukrainian state is severely crippled and enduringly vulnerable to myriad Russian pressures –both military and non-military.  In Syria the supposed isolation of Russia has been shown to be a myth.  The Obama Administration acknowledges that Russia must be part of an overall Middle East solution and has caved in on letting Assad stay in power because it has no strategy to counter Russia.  Meanwhile, despite rising financial costs of the operation, Putin has a working coalition with Iran while U.S. alliances are collapsing. Putin, in my view (to be fair many would disagree), is a strategist, the quality of the strategy is another issue) but his strategic goals do not exclude a superb sense of opportunistic timing.

BERNARD:  Steve, reports are consistent that Putin is not bombing ISIS targets in Syria but instead the opponents of Bashar al-Assad.   What’s your take on what is really happening between Putin and ISIS and Putin and Assad?   And what does this suggest for the United States?

BLANK:  What this suggests for the U.S. is that the Administration still fails to grasp what Putin is up to or to support the development of the analytical capabilities we need to understand Russia.  It points to serious defects in intelligence and policymaking and to the continuing absence in this administration of any real understanding of strategy or how limited military forces may be used to advance concrete political interests and objectives.  If we are to deal with the multiple challenges facing us – not just Putin’s Russia – these problems must be rectified sooner rather than later.

Although Putin now calls for improved ties with Washington he has indeed attacked other factions much more seriously and often than ISIS because Putin’s goals have nothing to do with ISIS other than keeping it in Syria where its members cannot threaten Russia, as would be the case in the North Caucasus and potentially Central Asia.  Putin stands foursquare behind Assad and the U.S. still has no clear idea what it wants.  Moreover, despite years of experience to the contrary, Washington still seems entranced by the idea that a “third force,” neither Assad nor ISIS, can come to power in Syria, establish itself as the legitimate rule through some semblance of democratic rule and be pro-Western.  This, to be frank, is delusional and explains much of the failure to date.

BERNARD:   It’s curious how Vladimir Putin seems to have a solid working relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the same time he deepens his relationship with the Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran – having just sold him S-300 surface-to-air missiles – a sophisticated missile defense system.   On the heels of the Iranian nuclear agreement, how are the U.S. and Israel to understand this?  

BLANK:  Russia has several reasons for close ties with Israel.  It does not want a new Arab-Israel war even if everyone else was at peace for the Arabs would lose and Washington would dominate the political aftermath.  Second, it trades substantially with Israel and is now very interested in getting into Israel’s energy policies to gain another source of leverage in the Middle East.  At the same time it supports a unified Palestinian camp and will not recognize Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorists.  Indeed, acting through Iran and Damascus, Moscow is one of their principal suppliers of weapons though it claims those groups are not terrorists!  More recently it clearly sees an opportunity to score points at Washington’s expense given the incompetence on both sides that has led to serious Israel-American tensions.  Putin and Netanyahu appear to understand each other.  Putin respects Israel’s willingness to use force and is personally not an anti-Semite (though perfectly willing to play that card at home if necessary).  These factors explain the improved ties with Russia.

BERNARD:  Thank you, Steve, for your time, expertise and candor.  To see Steve Blank's extensive professional profile, visit www.LisaBernardsSecuritySpeak.com and to host him, contact me directly at Lisa@LisaBernardsSecuritySpeak.com.