Ground Zero: North Korea as the First Rogue Member of the Nuclear Club - An Interview with Dr. Paul Bracken, Leading International Security Strategist

Amid natural disasters of unprecedented magnitude, a man-made nightmare lurks in the North Korean nuclear program.   Not given to drama, exaggeration or panic, it was my mission to reality-check my understanding of the threat Kim Jong Un’s arsenal and his intentions pose to the stability of the North Korean Peninsula, the vulnerability of our allies South Korea and Japan, and the security of the west coast of the United States.  To this end, I interviewed Dr. Paul Bracken, author of the The Dynamics of the Second Nuclear Age:  Strategy, Dangers and the New Power Politics and Fire in the East: The Rise of Asian Military Power and the Second Nuclear Age and The Command and Control of Nuclear Forces.   Paul Bracken’s assessments are distinctly comprehensive.  He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Columbia University and a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Yale University.   A Professor of Political Science and Operations Management, his grasp of the technology, history, players and politics – and the interplay of them all – is second to none.  War gaming under conditions of stress and uncertainty is what Paul Bracken does for private industry and the United States military.  What the games reveal about human nature, conflict escalation, and exogenous factors that alter strategic plans is surprising, sobering and instructive.  The following are excerpts from our talk.

BERNARD: Seismic tests support the North Korean claim that it tested a hydrogen bomb, however "sniffers" - the aircraft that fly through debris - have not detected radiation levels consistent with such a nuclear explosion.  How much of this claim is hype from North Korean State Media? 

 

BERNARD:  Earlier in 2017 you reasoned that Kim Jong Un would make the development of an H-bomb a top priority.  Suddenly, within just months, that goal may well have been realized.  What accounts for the lightening-pace of the North Korean nuclear program? 

 

BERNARD:  Of the nine states in the world that are nuclear-armed, North Korea is the one over which analysts and practitioners of foreign policy are losing sleep.  What is so troubling here?

BERNARD:  Citizens voice their worries about the rhetoric coming from President Trump towards Kim Jong Un during this crisis.  What do you make of the President's remarks? 

BERNARD:  We've seen the Trump administration's management of this challenge via the United Nations and the U.S. Congress with economic sanctions and through Secretary of State Tillerson's talks with Chinese and Japanese leaders.  What would American leadership look like for this crisis and on nuclear (non) proliferation in general?



BERNARD: Where is the United States in terms of modernizing our aging nuclear arsenals and committing to strategic thinking and planning for this second nuclear age?

 

BERNARD:  As we wrap up, it feels befitting to share an excerpt of an interview I read at the outset of my research.  Asked about your first reaction to the ongoing dispute with North Korea you replied:  "Stanley Kubrick (Dr. Strangelove) had no imagination.  Five years ago (2011, as Obama was going to eliminate nuclear weapons from the world), if anyone said a nuclear poker game would play out between 'The Donald' and Kim Jong-un, no one - no one - would have believed it.  Well, here we are ...."  Thank you for your generosity with your time, candor and expertise.  

Paul Bracken is available for formal presentations and distinguished lectures via Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak, LLC.  (203) 293-4741.  LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  Learn more about him at www.SecuritySpeak.net.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Communications and Crisis Management in the Post 9/11 Period

Like many of you, I am deluged today by memories of September 11, 2001.  All my telephones ringing at once.  Neighborhood schools on lockdown.  Huddling on the couch with my family as we watched hours of mind-blowing and life-altering events unfold on television.  On television.  9/11 happened before the advent and ubiquity of social media.  It was pre-Facebook, pre-Twitter, pre-Instagram. 

Today, emergencies, crises and disasters - manmade or natural - occur with a panoply of media available to interlopers and bystanders.  Without a plan for media management and rules set forth by an organization's leadership well in advance, social media may interfere with or complicate life-saving efforts.  I share the wisdom of Bo Mitchell, President of 911 Consulting:

 



 

911 Consulting is the nation's leader in emergency planning and training for workplaces. Founder and President Bo Mitchell, CEM, CPP, CBCP, CAS, CSI-ML, HSEEP, MOAB, CHCM, CHSP, CHS-V, CSSM, CSHM, CFC, CIPS, CSC, CESCO, IAC, TFCT3, CERT, CMC, CHEP, served as Police Commissioner of Wilton, Connecticut for sixteen years.  He retired in 2001 to establish 911 Consulting with the mission to protect people at their workplaces during emergencies.

Take the Next 90 Seconds to Consider Your Safety, Security and Use of Social Media in a Crisis Situation

On the heels of the terrorist attack in London and the excellent piece, Think Before You Tweet in the Wake of an Attack at www.Wired.com, the words of Bo Mitchell, President of 911 Consulting and Former Police Commissioner in Wilton, Connecticut, are echoing in my head.  If you manage a facility, department or business, or if you work or recreate in one, his counsel will resonate with you and may well help you save your own life and the lives of others in an active shooter scenario, terrorist attack or natural disaster.  Here is an excerpt of my recent interview with him: 

 



To see more of Lisa Bernard's interview with Bo Mitchell visit www.SecuriITyBriefs.Blogspot.com.  To host Bo Mitchell at your next conference, telephone Lisa Bernard at (203) 293-4741 or email  LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.

The Russians Are Coming? The Russians Are Coming!

 

To be sure, the reaction from people in and beyond Groton and New London, Connecticut to the sighting of a Russian spy vessel sitting thirty miles off their coast and the U.S. Naval Submarine Base last month spanned as wide as those in the Norman Jewison comedy film, The Russians are Coming!  The Russians are Coming! Locals voiced their concerns and opinions at a town meeting.  On Facebook, folks wondered if they should keep their children home from school.  Retired navy commanders, American submariners, CT lawmakers and elected officials calmed nerves and offered threat assessments and possibilities spanning the gamut from “this is nothing new” to “Putin is testing the resolve of the new American President” to “yet another Russian aggression.”  A resident of coastal Connecticut myself, I certainly noted the sighting and couldn’t shrug it off.  After musing about it with a colleague, I went to my local library for the DVD, The Russians are Coming! The Russians are Coming!  Curiously enough, there was quite a wait list for the 1966 farce that parodies Cold War concerns.   

Days ago, just as my turn to rent the DVD came up, that same ship, the Viktor Leonov, was spotted twenty miles south of the U.S. Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay in Georgia.   That’s when I reached out to Dr. Stephen J. Blank, internationally renowned authority on Russian military and foreign policies, for a better sense of Russia’s motives in sending this 300 foot-long ship with surveillance equipment that can intercept radar, radio and other electronic signals.  Unlike the guileless submarine crew in the comedy, The Russians are Coming! the Russians aboard the Viktor Leonov are not sneaking an irresistible and innocent “peek” at America with wide-eyed curiosity.  And “spying” seems too vague a term to be useful to describe what it really happening as this ship traverses our coast, albeit in international waters.  As ever, Dr. Blank’s informed analysis put it all in perspective and I share it with you here:

The appearance of the Russian vessel off the US submarine base at Kings Bay, Georgia is not merely another example of Russian surveillance of our submarine capability or another attempt to send a psychological message that its subs can get within striking range of the continental United States.  Rather it is also part of an evolving strategy that appears to be intelligence and combat preparation for a possible contingency of a protracted war with the U.S. when Russian subs will have a mission of interdicting U.S. naval vessels and submarines en route to Europe and/or cutting communication cables with Europe.  If seen in tandem with recent military moves, these submarine sightings, aerial, and naval probes of the U.S. and our allies, suggests a mounting concern in Russia that it will have to fight a protracted war with NATO.  Indeed, the scope of Russia's comprehensive information warfare against the U.S. and Europe already indicates that Moscow deems itself to be in a "Cold War" type scenario with NATO.

Dr. Stephen J. Blank is available for talks, lectures and briefings through Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak, LLC.  (203) 293-4741.  LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net. 

 

 



A Sold-out and Successful CyberSalon ... For Ladies Only!

 

 



We couldn't have asked for a better start to 2017 at Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak!  At our first Dr. Robert L. Bernard Memorial Lecture, women from IT, financial services, and industry gathered to get their cyber-safety on - and they did!  With formal remarks followed by a workshop led by Ami Soifer, we dug into the science and systems behind hacking and then moved immediately to enhance our cyber-security as a practical matter.  Ami is the CEO of The TNS Group, a managed IT consulting firm based in Connecticut and serving firms in the Global 2000.  He is a world-class engineer of IT designs and considered by many to be one of the world's foremost secure application delivery experts.  Warm and personable, Ami engaged the group in his inimitable style from the get-go and then proceeded to bring the complexities of cyber-matters to practical levels.  We left the CyberSalon both feeling more secure as well as being more secure with regard to our online lives, devices and our and our clients' data.  Let this program be the first of many as Ami is prepared to bring his expertise to others in this forum.  At SecuritySpeak, we say that we "bring a human face to security matters."  Ami's CyberSalon... For Ladies Only has become the model for this mission. 

 

 

 

 

 

 



A CyberSalon - For Ladies Only, Wednesday, 11 January 2017, 3:00 - 5:00 p.m.

Ladies, its 2017 and time to get your cyber-safety on!  Join us for a CyberSalon with Ami Soifer, world-class engineer of IT designs and the CEO who bridges the cyber-security and hardware worlds.  This is a relaxed, “whine” and cheese, end-of-the-day event to provide a safe space for the questions you know you need to ask about passwords, servers and settings(oh my!) , but haven’t made the time to … until now:  

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

55 Greens Farms Road, Westport, CT  06880

5-minutes from Westport’s Saugatuck Metro North Station (shuttle-service available) and 5-minutes off I-95 Exit 17 or 18 with free parking on-site

3:15 p.m.  Charge-up your devices and wind-down with wine and cheese

3:30 p.m.  Insights, Guidance and Remarks by Ami Soifer

4:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m.  Q&A and workshop-style exchange

$36 a lady.  Completed registration required by Monday, 1/9/17, as seating is limited.

Hit reply or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net to start your registration.  We need to know what’s on your mind and about your mobile phones, tablets and other devices.

Sign-up with a colleague, mom, sister, daughter or pal!  And remember:  Share - or be square!

#CyberSalonCT        #ForLadiesOnlyCT

The Phone Call Heard 'Round the World: What of the Talk between Presidents Trump and Tsai?

I admit, my first reaction to the news of a break in forty years of American policy was as much to the time span of forty years as to the event itself.  Could this be the beginning of a shift of Biblical proportions?  Hmmm ... I next analogized the happening to a superpower chess match.  While our eyes have been on North Korea as a pawn of China and Russia, could the United States have just moved it's Queen on China's Bishop?  Enough.  It was time to call an expert, so I reached out to Gordon G. Chang, author of The Coming Collapse of China and devoted analyst of Asian security matters.  He has been generous and pivotal in this space and, most recently, speaking to a live audience at our Election Night 2016 Security Summit.  He replied with his characteristic precision and alacrity:

 

"It is possible the phone conversation Friday with Tsai Ing-wen was Trump's opening bid in a complex bargaining with Beijing and that he has no long-term intention to strengthen relations with Taipei, but the Trump advisor who put the call together, Stephen Yates, is a strong proponent of Taiwan.  It is almost certain, therefore, that Yates was trying to steer American policy in Taipei's direction.

What we do know is that the President-elect has broken with almost four decades of Washington policy toward China, and this creates a dynamic that could take on a life of it's own.

See this, my National Interest piece on the topic:   http://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-donald-trumps-taiwan-call-changes-everything-18605."

 

 





2016 Election Night Calm ... Four Experts Kept Us Focused on Key Security Matters Facing the 45th American President

 

Four experts in different aspects of national and international security did not know, and could not know, who would be elected as the next American President as they spoke to an audience comprised of law enforcement, IT and HR professionals, business-owners and CEOs, U.S. Army veterans, educators, social workers and scholars, all assembled to hear macro-analyses of the dynamics and challenges presented by the global economy, Islamic State, nuclear proliferation and Russian foreign policy.  They convened in Westport, Connecticut, on Tuesday, November 8^th for an Election Night 2016 Security Summit, 80 Minutes Around the World: Security Briefings for the 45^th POTUS.   Focused on the issues and avoiding politics, each offered a ten-minute briefing to POTUS-Elect 45 and conducted a 5-minute Q&A.

Economist Constance Hunter was the first to the podium flagging trade policy, industrial policy and taxation as three key components of economic security.  Asia-watcher Gordon Chang then took the floor to map out the intricate relationship between China, Iran and North Korea in his talk called, The New Nuclear Nexus. 



Dr. Austin Long, an authority on insurgency and irregular warfare, rose to present The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria: Crucible for the Next American President. Dr. Stephen J. Blank capped off the program with an eye-opening and sobering synopsis of Russia’s War on America.  

During this program there was no election coverage and we operated under The Chatham House Rule.  Both worked to facilitate a candid and synergistic exchange of views and perspectives between the experts themselves and between the experts and the audience.  To organize a similar program, or for ideas on speakers and other formats more suitable for your department, meeting or campus, contact Lisa Bernard via email or telephone (203) 293-4741 or at www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime. #ElectionNightSecuritySummit    #ElectionNightSecurityBriefings  SecuritySpeak@PodiumTime

 

 

Russian Foreign Policy Turns on a DIME (Diplomacy, Information, Military, Economics): An Interview with Dr. Stephen J. Blank

 

The weather was just the first treat on July 19^th when I arrived in Washington, D.C., at the Capitol Hill Club on that cool, dry and sunny morning to hear Dr. Stephen J. Blank deliver an address, Russia’s Global Probes. Like a luxury cruise ship, Dr. Blank navigated his remarks with expert engineering, using sophisticated instruments that work below deck to produce a smooth sail and memorable journey. His talk docked in three parts of the globe – Latin America, the Middle East and Europe. In each port of Russian activity, he delivered his audience reality-checks on Russian history in the region, Vladimir Putin’s objectives, Russia’s intrinsic nature, and the problems for U.S. national security with projecting American values into the interpretation of Russia’s undertakings. With the temporal breadth of a skilled historian of Russian, Soviet and post-Soviet affairs, Dr. Blank portrayed a crisp yet comprehensive snapshot of the world today through the Russian lens. He deftly decoded Russian behavior and Vladimir Putin’s positions, leaving his listeners sobered and empowered with a ready frame of reference for understanding and interpreting Russian diplomatic, information, military and economic operations. 

 

Dr. Blank and I then returned to his office at the American Foreign Policy Council for an interview. His generosity continued. A former professor of Russian National Security Studies and U.S. National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, he rolled up his sleeves and got to work informally as if my viewers were students there with him in his private office hours. Here are excerpts.

 

BERNARD:  I heard U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry assert that "nowhere is there a greater hotbed or incubator for these terrorists than in Syria," as he wrapped up meetings in Moscow with Russian President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov exploring U.S.-Russian cooperation to end the five-year civil war there. Reports are conflicting about the outcome of their talks and the possibility at all for military cooperation and intelligence-sharing. As an old Cold Warrior, it's not my first instinct to imagine us "sharing" intelligence with the Russians or "cooperating" militarily. Yet, the Syrian situation is compelling.  What's your take on all this? 

 

 

BERNARD: My clients at SecuritySpeak include global investors, businesspeople and entrepreneurs.  Some are exploring markets and opportunities in the energy and other resource-rich regions of the former USSR.   How stable is Central Asia today?



 

BERNARD: My clients at SecuritySpeak are concerned about threats like North Korean missile strikes and cyber-attacks.  What do you see as the Russian role in these scenarios?

BERNARD: In four months, we Americans will elect ourselves a new President and Commander-in-Chief.  What frame of reference can you offer him or her for advancing American and global security interests?



 

BERNARD:  Thank you, Steve, for your insights, time and energy.  I know you have an interview with Romanian TV journalists at noon and you're only just back from delivering a master class in Brussels last week.  It was a pleasure attending your address this morning at the Capitol Hill Club and speaking with you here now.

 

To arrange a presentation by Dr. Blank for your firm, association or university, contact Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak, LLC at 203.293.4741 or LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.