Understanding the Solid Relationship Between Israel and Russia

 

Photo Credit: The Times of Israel



This week marks the 73rd anniversary of the defeat of German Nazism and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin to mark the occasion.  Their diplomatic relationship - and the larger dynamic of Israel-Russia relations - are curious to so many Americans given the Russian patronage of Iran and the enmity between Israel and Iran.  For some perspective, I put the question to Dr. Stephen J. Blank, Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington D.C.  Dr. Blank is a historian of Russian foreign and military policies and his expertise spans the tsarist, Soviet and post-communist periods.  Ever generous with his time and expertise, he shared seven key reasons for what he called "the solidity of this relationship."

 

• First, Putin personally appears to have good feelings about Israel and Jews and Russian policy formally eschews anti-Semitism - though there is still a fair amount of  it in society and he is willing to use it in measured doses for his domestic needs. 

• Second,  Russian elite respect Israel's military-economic-technological prowess and know that Israel is a channel to Washington. 

• Third, there are thriving trade and investment relations between the two countries - even to the point where Israel has sold weapons to Russia. 

• Fourth, Israel respects Russian red lines and avoids actions that are provocative to her. If Israel has to cross a line it informs Moscow first.  This is something Putin et al. appreciate because it shows Israeli respect for Russian sensitivities and interests. 

• Fifth, Moscow knows that wars against Israel end badly for Arabs and bring the U.S. back into the Middle East in a big way. 

• Sixth,  there is some belief that the Russian Aliyah - the group of Russian Jews who have settled in and become citizens of Israel - is in some sense "our people" and they wish to preserve that tie.  They also understand what the USSR lost by pursuing anti-Semitic policies. 

• Seventh, it is critical to Moscow's Middle East policies and its sense of those policies that it be able to talk candidly to all parties and not be excessively identified with any one state's interests.  This also includes Israel precisely because of the many unsettled security issues in the region."

In hearing Dr. Blank's incisive comments I am reminded of the salient and sage words of another distinguished alumnus of University of Pennsylvania, Charles Dudley Warner, who observed that "[p]olitics makes strange bedfellows." 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm devoted to matters of international security.  Experts like Dr. Stephen J. Blank offer briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring analyses and understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To secure a speaker for your program reach out to  (203) 293-4741 or LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.   Learn more at  www.SecuritySpeak.net. 



Russian Foreign Policy Turns on a DIME (Diplomacy, Information, Military, Economics): An Interview with Dr. Stephen J. Blank

 

The weather was just the first treat on July 19^th when I arrived in Washington, D.C., at the Capitol Hill Club on that cool, dry and sunny morning to hear Dr. Stephen J. Blank deliver an address, Russia’s Global Probes. Like a luxury cruise ship, Dr. Blank navigated his remarks with expert engineering, using sophisticated instruments that work below deck to produce a smooth sail and memorable journey. His talk docked in three parts of the globe – Latin America, the Middle East and Europe. In each port of Russian activity, he delivered his audience reality-checks on Russian history in the region, Vladimir Putin’s objectives, Russia’s intrinsic nature, and the problems for U.S. national security with projecting American values into the interpretation of Russia’s undertakings. With the temporal breadth of a skilled historian of Russian, Soviet and post-Soviet affairs, Dr. Blank portrayed a crisp yet comprehensive snapshot of the world today through the Russian lens. He deftly decoded Russian behavior and Vladimir Putin’s positions, leaving his listeners sobered and empowered with a ready frame of reference for understanding and interpreting Russian diplomatic, information, military and economic operations. 

 

Dr. Blank and I then returned to his office at the American Foreign Policy Council for an interview. His generosity continued. A former professor of Russian National Security Studies and U.S. National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, he rolled up his sleeves and got to work informally as if my viewers were students there with him in his private office hours. Here are excerpts.

 

BERNARD:  I heard U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry assert that "nowhere is there a greater hotbed or incubator for these terrorists than in Syria," as he wrapped up meetings in Moscow with Russian President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov exploring U.S.-Russian cooperation to end the five-year civil war there. Reports are conflicting about the outcome of their talks and the possibility at all for military cooperation and intelligence-sharing. As an old Cold Warrior, it's not my first instinct to imagine us "sharing" intelligence with the Russians or "cooperating" militarily. Yet, the Syrian situation is compelling.  What's your take on all this? 

 

 

BERNARD: My clients at SecuritySpeak include global investors, businesspeople and entrepreneurs.  Some are exploring markets and opportunities in the energy and other resource-rich regions of the former USSR.   How stable is Central Asia today?



 

BERNARD: My clients at SecuritySpeak are concerned about threats like North Korean missile strikes and cyber-attacks.  What do you see as the Russian role in these scenarios?

BERNARD: In four months, we Americans will elect ourselves a new President and Commander-in-Chief.  What frame of reference can you offer him or her for advancing American and global security interests?



 

BERNARD:  Thank you, Steve, for your insights, time and energy.  I know you have an interview with Romanian TV journalists at noon and you're only just back from delivering a master class in Brussels last week.  It was a pleasure attending your address this morning at the Capitol Hill Club and speaking with you here now.

 

To arrange a presentation by Dr. Blank for your firm, association or university, contact Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak, LLC at 203.293.4741 or LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net. 

 

 

 





Putin in Play?

Stephen Blank, Ph.D.

I had the pleasure of interviewing internationally known Russia specialist, Dr. Stephen Blank, now a Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C., and previously a Professor of National Security Studies at the U.S. Army War College.  I’ve known Steve for many years and worked with him at Foreign Affairs Speakers Bureau.  I welcome him today to my interview chair.

BERNARD:  Steve, help me understand  … When we see Russian President Putin playing a leadership role with the destruction of chemical weapons in Syria, the bombing campaign against ISIS, the incursion into Ukraine and his deepening relationship with Iran, the old Cold Warrior in me senses an imperialist mission.    On the other hand, knowing how ailing the Russian economy and the Russian defense industry are, I see a clever and greedy tactician whose weapons systems sales make money for him and his cronies.   Which is it – Putin as a Peter the Great-type strategist expanding the Russian empire or Putin the opportunistic capitalist seizing markets for his military wares?

BLANK:  To answer this question it is essential to grasp that there is no necessary contradiction between strategy and tactics.  Only in the U.S. media and political class, neither of whom grasp the difference between the two and use the terms promiscuously, does it seem that Putin is just a tactician and not necessarily a good one.  To be sure, Russia has incurred serious and unexpected costs that will be long lasting.  But from Putin’s perspective, which is the only that counts for him, he has won.  Crimea is his, Eastern Ukraine is under his control and the Ukrainian state is severely crippled and enduringly vulnerable to myriad Russian pressures –both military and non-military.  In Syria the supposed isolation of Russia has been shown to be a myth.  The Obama Administration acknowledges that Russia must be part of an overall Middle East solution and has caved in on letting Assad stay in power because it has no strategy to counter Russia.  Meanwhile, despite rising financial costs of the operation, Putin has a working coalition with Iran while U.S. alliances are collapsing. Putin, in my view (to be fair many would disagree), is a strategist, the quality of the strategy is another issue) but his strategic goals do not exclude a superb sense of opportunistic timing.

BERNARD:  Steve, reports are consistent that Putin is not bombing ISIS targets in Syria but instead the opponents of Bashar al-Assad.   What’s your take on what is really happening between Putin and ISIS and Putin and Assad?   And what does this suggest for the United States?

BLANK:  What this suggests for the U.S. is that the Administration still fails to grasp what Putin is up to or to support the development of the analytical capabilities we need to understand Russia.  It points to serious defects in intelligence and policymaking and to the continuing absence in this administration of any real understanding of strategy or how limited military forces may be used to advance concrete political interests and objectives.  If we are to deal with the multiple challenges facing us – not just Putin’s Russia – these problems must be rectified sooner rather than later.

Although Putin now calls for improved ties with Washington he has indeed attacked other factions much more seriously and often than ISIS because Putin’s goals have nothing to do with ISIS other than keeping it in Syria where its members cannot threaten Russia, as would be the case in the North Caucasus and potentially Central Asia.  Putin stands foursquare behind Assad and the U.S. still has no clear idea what it wants.  Moreover, despite years of experience to the contrary, Washington still seems entranced by the idea that a “third force,” neither Assad nor ISIS, can come to power in Syria, establish itself as the legitimate rule through some semblance of democratic rule and be pro-Western.  This, to be frank, is delusional and explains much of the failure to date.

BERNARD:   It’s curious how Vladimir Putin seems to have a solid working relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the same time he deepens his relationship with the Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran – having just sold him S-300 surface-to-air missiles – a sophisticated missile defense system.   On the heels of the Iranian nuclear agreement, how are the U.S. and Israel to understand this?  

BLANK:  Russia has several reasons for close ties with Israel.  It does not want a new Arab-Israel war even if everyone else was at peace for the Arabs would lose and Washington would dominate the political aftermath.  Second, it trades substantially with Israel and is now very interested in getting into Israel’s energy policies to gain another source of leverage in the Middle East.  At the same time it supports a unified Palestinian camp and will not recognize Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorists.  Indeed, acting through Iran and Damascus, Moscow is one of their principal suppliers of weapons though it claims those groups are not terrorists!  More recently it clearly sees an opportunity to score points at Washington’s expense given the incompetence on both sides that has led to serious Israel-American tensions.  Putin and Netanyahu appear to understand each other.  Putin respects Israel’s willingness to use force and is personally not an anti-Semite (though perfectly willing to play that card at home if necessary).  These factors explain the improved ties with Russia.

BERNARD:  Thank you, Steve, for your time, expertise and candor.  To see Steve Blank's extensive professional profile, visit www.LisaBernardsSecuritySpeak.com and to host him, contact me directly at Lisa@LisaBernardsSecuritySpeak.com.