Speech and book reviews, expert interviews and news you can use on cyber-security, U.S. national security and global security matters from Lisa Bernard, President of Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak, LLC - a private consulting firm and speakers bureau.
As U.S. President Donald Trump was wrapping up his historic summit with North Korea's Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un with denuclearization a key topic on their agenda, my thoughts were on another meeting to be hosted by Kim Jong Un - that with Syria's President Bashar al-Assad. Though no date for the Pyongyang meeting has been decided, the timing of the announcement of this is intriguing, even suspicious. North Korea and Syria share a decades-long history of military collaboration and technology transfers. While North Korea has halted testing of nuclear weapons and missiles in advance of the Trump-Kim summit, the country continues to enrich uranium and remains a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction.
On Tuesday afternoon, June 12, 2018, I was eager to interview The Honorable Frederic C. Hof, former United Stated Special Advisor on transition in Syria on a host of developments in the Middle East. We met at Bard College's Globalization and International Affairs Program in New York City where Ambassador Hof is teaching a seminar, Ten Principles for Effective Diplomacy. I immediately posited my concern that the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula might bring with it the transfer of nuclear material and paraphernalia to a receptive Syria. His response:
Ambassador Hof, an authority on Arab and Middle East affairs, and I continued to discuss trends that are defining a new Middle East. The interview will be posting in the upcoming weeks.
Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm and speakers bureau devoted to matters of national, cyber and international security. Experts in these areas offer reports, briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life. To host a speaker or arrange for a consultation call (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net. See more of their work at www.SecuritySpeak.net and at www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.
This week marks the 73rd anniversary of the defeat of German Nazism and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin to mark the occasion. Their diplomatic relationship - and the larger dynamic of Israel-Russia relations - are curious to so many Americans given the Russian patronage of Iran and the enmity between Israel and Iran. For some perspective, I put the question to Dr. Stephen J. Blank, Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington D.C. Dr. Blank is a historian of Russian foreign and military policies and his expertise spans the tsarist, Soviet and post-communist periods. Ever generous with his time and expertise, he shared seven key reasons for what he called "the solidity of this relationship."
First, Putin personally appears to have good feelings about Israel and Jews and Russian policy formally eschews anti-Semitism - though there is still a fair amount of it in society and he is willing to use it in measured doses for his domestic needs.
Second, Russian elite respect Israel's military-economic-technological prowess and know that Israel is a channel to Washington.
Third, there are thriving trade and investment relations between the two countries - even to the point where Israel has sold weapons to Russia.
Fourth, Israel respects Russian red lines and avoids actions that are provocative to her. If Israel has to cross a line it informs Moscow first. This is something Putin et al. appreciate because it shows Israeli respect for Russian sensitivities and interests.
Fifth, Moscow knows that wars against Israel end badly for Arabs and bring the U.S. back into the Middle East in a big way.
Sixth, there is some belief that the Russian Aliyah - the group of Russian Jews who have settled in and become citizens of Israel - is in some sense "our people" and they wish to preserve that tie. They also understand what the USSR lost by pursuing anti-Semitic policies.
Seventh, it is critical to Moscow's Middle East policies and its sense of those policies that it be able to talk candidly to all parties and not be excessively identified with any one state's interests. This also includes Israel precisely because of the many unsettled security issues in the region."
In hearing Dr. Blank's incisive comments I am reminded of the salient and sage words of another distinguished alumnus of University of Pennsylvania, Charles Dudley Warner, who observed that "[p]olitics makes strange bedfellows."
Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm devoted to matters of international security. Experts like Dr. Stephen J. Blank offer briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring analyses and understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life. To secure a speaker for your program reach out to (203) 293-4741 or LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net. Learn more at www.SecuritySpeak.net.
This morning I was on my way to interview Gordon G. Chang on the upcoming Trump-Kim Summit when I heard the Pentagon briefing and commentaries on the strikes on Syrian chemical weapons arsenals. Chief Spokeswoman Dana White emphasized that this operation was different from the 2017 strike on Syria's Shayrat Air Base in that it targeted Bashar al-Assad's production capability rather than his delivery vehicles. General McKenzie detailed the contributions of British and French forces and noted that Russian air defenses were not deployed. The European Union called on Russia and Iran to help stop future chemical weapons attacks by the Syrian government. What I did not hear or read in any of the reports or analyses is the role of North Korea in the Syrian chemical weapons program. Gordon Chang is the author of Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the World and a leading authority on North Korean, Chinese and regional military and security affairs. On the eve of the 2016 Presidential election I heard him deliver a briefing entitled, The New Nuclear Nexus: China, Iran and North Korea. In it, he revealed the eye-opening extent of North Korea's strategic relationships with other autocratic regimes. I jumped at the chance to ask him about the relationship between North Korea and Syria with respect to chemical weapons. His response:
My full interview with Gordon Chang will be posted in advance of the Trump-Kim Summit. In the interim, I urge you to follow him @GordonGChang and read his articles at www.TheDailyBeast.com. See him live if you can or hear him on radio on The John Batchelor Show on 770 AM in the NY area. His talks, commentary and analyses are always timely and cutting edge.
Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm and speakers bureau devoted to matters of national, cyber and international security. Experts in these areas offer reports, briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life. To host a speaker or arrange for a consultation call (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net. See more of their work at www.SecuritySpeak.net and at www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime. Very special thanks go to Lydia and Gordon Chang for their ever-gracious efforts to keep the level of discourse on these critical issues at a high and dignified plane and to the Charles Dillon Public Library for providing the venue for Lisa Bernard's interview of Gordon Chang.
The weather was just the first treat on July 19th
when I arrived in Washington, D.C., at the Capitol Hill Club on that cool, dry
and sunny morning to hear Dr. Stephen J. Blank deliver an address, Russia’s Global Probes. Like a luxury cruise ship, Dr. Blank navigated
his remarks with expert engineering, using sophisticated instruments that work
below deck to produce a smooth sail and memorable journey. His talk docked in three parts of the globe –
Latin America, the Middle East and Europe.In each port of Russian activity,
he delivered his audience reality-checks on Russian history in the region, Vladimir
Putin’s objectives, Russia’s intrinsic nature, and the problems for U.S.
national security with projecting American values into the interpretation of Russia’s undertakings. With the temporal breadth of a skilled
historian of Russian, Soviet and post-Soviet affairs, Dr. Blank portrayed a crisp
yet comprehensive snapshot of the world today through the Russian lens.He deftly decoded Russian behavior and Vladimir
Putin’s positions, leaving his listeners sobered and empowered with a ready frame
of reference for understanding and interpreting Russian diplomatic, information,
military and economic operations.
Dr. Blank and I then returned to his office at the American
Foreign Policy Council for an interview. His generosity continued. A former professor of Russian National Security
Studies and U.S. National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute
of the US Army War College, he rolled up his sleeves and got to work informally
as if my viewers were students there with him in his private office hours.Here are excerpts.
BERNARD: I heard U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry assert that "nowhere is there a greater hotbed or incubator for these terrorists than in Syria," as he wrapped up meetings in Moscow with Russian President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov exploring U.S.-Russian cooperation to end the five-year civil war there. Reports are conflicting about the outcome of their talks and the possibility at all for military cooperation and intelligence-sharing. As an old Cold Warrior, it's not my first instinct to imagine us "sharing" intelligence with the Russians or "cooperating" militarily. Yet, the Syrian situation is compelling. What's your take on all this?
BERNARD: My clients at SecuritySpeak include global investors, businesspeople and entrepreneurs. Some are exploring markets and opportunities in the energy and other resource-rich regions of the former USSR. How stable is Central Asia today?
BERNARD: My clients at SecuritySpeak are concerned about threats like North Korean missile strikes and cyber-attacks. What do you see as the Russian role in these scenarios?
BERNARD: In four months, we Americans will elect ourselves a new President and Commander-in-Chief. What frame of reference can you offer him or her for advancing American and global security interests?
BERNARD: Thank you, Steve, for your insights, time and energy. I know you have an interview with Romanian TV journalists at noon and you're only just back from delivering a master class in Brussels last week. It was a pleasure attending your address this morning at the Capitol Hill Club and speaking with you here now.
To arrange a presentation by Dr. Blank for your firm, association or university, contact Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak, LLC at 203.293.4741 or LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.
