Thursday, May 10, 2018

Understanding the Solid Relationship Between Israel and Russia

 
Photo Credit: The Times of Israel

This week marks the 73rd anniversary of the defeat of German Nazism and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin to mark the occasion.  Their diplomatic relationship - and the larger dynamic of Israel-Russia relations - are curious to so many Americans given the Russian patronage of Iran and the enmity between Israel and Iran.  For some perspective, I put the question to Dr. Stephen J. Blank, Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington D.C.  Dr. Blank is a historian of Russian foreign and military policies and his expertise spans the tsarist, Soviet and post-communist periods.  Ever generous with his time and expertise, he shared seven key reasons for what he called "the solidity of this relationship."

 
  • First, Putin personally appears to have good feelings about Israel and Jews and Russian policy formally eschews anti-Semitism - though there is still a fair amount of  it in society and he is willing to use it in measured doses for his domestic needs. 

  • Second,  Russian elite respect Israel's military-economic-technological prowess and know that Israel is a channel to Washington. 

  • Third, there are thriving trade and investment relations between the two countries - even to the point where Israel has sold weapons to Russia. 

  • Fourth, Israel respects Russian red lines and avoids actions that are provocative to her. If Israel has to cross a line it informs Moscow first.  This is something Putin et al. appreciate because it shows Israeli respect for Russian sensitivities and interests. 

  • Fifth, Moscow knows that wars against Israel end badly for Arabs and bring the U.S. back into the Middle East in a big way. 

  • Sixth,  there is some belief that the Russian Aliyah - the group of Russian Jews who have settled in and become citizens of Israel - is in some sense "our people" and they wish to preserve that tie.  They also understand what the USSR lost by pursuing anti-Semitic policies. 

  • Seventh, it is critical to Moscow's Middle East policies and its sense of those policies that it be able to talk candidly to all parties and not be excessively identified with any one state's interests.  This also includes Israel precisely because of the many unsettled security issues in the region."

In hearing Dr. Blank's incisive comments I am reminded of the salient and sage words of another distinguished alumnus of University of Pennsylvania, Charles Dudley Warner, who observed that "[p]olitics makes strange bedfellows." 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm devoted to matters of international security.  Experts like Dr. Stephen J. Blank offer briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring analyses and understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To secure a speaker for your program reach out to  (203) 293-4741 or LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.   Learn more at  www.SecuritySpeak.net. 










Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Might "China Fatigue" Be a Factor for Kim Jong Un as the Supreme Leader Prepares to Meet President Trump in a Historic Summit?

Photo Credit: Daily Star

Twice in as many months we've learned of secret and surprise meetings between North Korea's Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un and China's President Xi Jinping, the more recent of which is taking place at the time of this writing and on the very day that U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a date and a venue have been decided for this historic Trump-Kim Summit.  This reminds me of the question I posed last month to Gordon G. Chang, author of NUCLEAR SHOWDOWN: North Korea Takes on the World, as plans for a summit were being explored.  I wanted to know if Kim Jong Un is aware of America's unique history and knack for turning enemies into prosperous and protected allies - Japan as the most obvious in North Korea's purview.  And, if so, how this might factor in to Kim Jong Un's thinking now that the major power heads of state are American President Trump for no more than two or six years, Russian President Putin for the foreseeable future and Chinese President Xi Jinping for life.  Could the narrow window of opportunity to "make a deal" with POTUS 45 be compelling to Kim?  His response:


 
Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm and speakers bureau devoted to matters of national, cyber and international security.  Experts in these areas offer reports, briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To host a speaker or arrange for a consultation call (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  See more of their work at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and at  www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.