Ground Zero: North Korea as the First Rogue Member of the Nuclear Club - An Interview with Dr. Paul Bracken, Leading International Security Strategist

Amid natural disasters of unprecedented magnitude, a man-made nightmare lurks in the North Korean nuclear program.   Not given to drama, exaggeration or panic, it was my mission to reality-check my understanding of the threat Kim Jong Un’s arsenal and his intentions pose to the stability of the North Korean Peninsula, the vulnerability of our allies South Korea and Japan, and the security of the west coast of the United States.  To this end, I interviewed Dr. Paul Bracken, author of the The Dynamics of the Second Nuclear Age:  Strategy, Dangers and the New Power Politics and Fire in the East: The Rise of Asian Military Power and the Second Nuclear Age and The Command and Control of Nuclear Forces.   Paul Bracken’s assessments are distinctly comprehensive.  He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Columbia University and a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Yale University.   A Professor of Political Science and Operations Management, his grasp of the technology, history, players and politics – and the interplay of them all – is second to none.  War gaming under conditions of stress and uncertainty is what Paul Bracken does for private industry and the United States military.  What the games reveal about human nature, conflict escalation, and exogenous factors that alter strategic plans is surprising, sobering and instructive.  The following are excerpts from our talk.

BERNARD: Seismic tests support the North Korean claim that it tested a hydrogen bomb, however "sniffers" - the aircraft that fly through debris - have not detected radiation levels consistent with such a nuclear explosion.  How much of this claim is hype from North Korean State Media? 

 

BERNARD:  Earlier in 2017 you reasoned that Kim Jong Un would make the development of an H-bomb a top priority.  Suddenly, within just months, that goal may well have been realized.  What accounts for the lightening-pace of the North Korean nuclear program? 

 

BERNARD:  Of the nine states in the world that are nuclear-armed, North Korea is the one over which analysts and practitioners of foreign policy are losing sleep.  What is so troubling here?

BERNARD:  Citizens voice their worries about the rhetoric coming from President Trump towards Kim Jong Un during this crisis.  What do you make of the President's remarks? 

BERNARD:  We've seen the Trump administration's management of this challenge via the United Nations and the U.S. Congress with economic sanctions and through Secretary of State Tillerson's talks with Chinese and Japanese leaders.  What would American leadership look like for this crisis and on nuclear (non) proliferation in general?



BERNARD: Where is the United States in terms of modernizing our aging nuclear arsenals and committing to strategic thinking and planning for this second nuclear age?

 

BERNARD:  As we wrap up, it feels befitting to share an excerpt of an interview I read at the outset of my research.  Asked about your first reaction to the ongoing dispute with North Korea you replied:  "Stanley Kubrick (Dr. Strangelove) had no imagination.  Five years ago (2011, as Obama was going to eliminate nuclear weapons from the world), if anyone said a nuclear poker game would play out between 'The Donald' and Kim Jong-un, no one - no one - would have believed it.  Well, here we are ...."  Thank you for your generosity with your time, candor and expertise.  

Paul Bracken is available for formal presentations and distinguished lectures via Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak, LLC.  (203) 293-4741.  LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  Learn more about him at www.SecuritySpeak.net.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Talking with Paul Bracken: Today's and Tomorrow's Technologies, Developments and Dangers in the Nuclear Arena

It was grey and cold outside when I arrived at Yale University to sit in on Dr. Paul Bracken’s class, Strategy, Technology & War, but illuminating and warm in his classroom.  There, eighty-five coeds and grad students from around the world (selected from hundreds who seek registration) engaged in a back and forth about strategy and the function of nuclear weapons from the Cold War into this “the second nuclear age.”  That is also the title of Dr. Bracken’s tour de force book, The Second Nuclear Age:  Strategy, Danger and the New Power Politics, a clarion-call for policymakers, technologists, investors and industrialists about this precarious era of nuclear proliferation.  It was just a few days after the North Korean missile launch when I arrived at the School of Management and I was percolating with questions for Dr. Bracken which he graciously addressed in our interview after class.  I am happy to bring the highlights to you in this space. 

Lisa Bernard:  Just this weekend, North Korea successfully launched a long range missile – a provocation deemed so serious that the United Nations Security Council convened an emergency session.   In what context can we understand this?

 

Lisa Bernard:  A recent article in the Wall Street Journal, The Other Dangers from That North Korean Nuke Test, by Messrs. Gilinsky and Sokolski, describes a frightening development, namely, the increasingly available advanced technologies and materials for hastened and state-of-the-art nuclear weapons development.  What does this mean, practically speaking, for the proliferation of WMD - weapons of mass destruction? 

 

Lisa Bernard:  We are coming upon the twentieth anniversary of STEM and the tenth anniversary of President George W. Bush’s American Competitiveness Initiative to bolster STEM.  With a B.S. in Engineering, a Ph.D. in Operations Research, as a Professor of Political Science and Business and a consultant to various branches of the U.S. government, you are uniquely positioned to view the impact of these efforts.  Professor Bracken, what do you see?

Lisa Bernard:  Paul, you speak and write so insightfully about the symbiotic relationship between Silicon Valley and the Pentagon.  Given the dynamics of national security today, what do you think might we see come out of Silicon Valley in the next chapter of their connection?

 

 

Lisa Bernard:  The gravity of these matters is sobering - even overwhelming. Thank you for helping me help my audience gain some perspective on the news we hear and the realities we face.  Your time and sharing of your expertise is very much appreciated. 


Would you like to host Paul Bracken and continue this conversation at your organization?  Call me at (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  I’d be happy to help you through the particulars and arrangements.

 

 

The Games People Play

We are a cyberspatial culture.  We work on mobile devices.   We shop online.  We navigate by GPS and kids today view Cyberchase on PBS before Sesame Street.  Along with this way of life comes challenges to it.  Threats to our cyberspatial existence are real and varied.  Some are a nuisance like a hacked email account and others are detrimental like the downing of a power grid.  Fortunately, an entire industry is developing to protect our devices, systems and data and one entrepreneur in particular has a particularly clever and culture-friendly approach.  Marc Groz is CEO of CyberXplore and I was delighted to interview him to learn more about the sources of some breaches and his firm’s remedy.

 

 To host Marc Groz, call Lisa Bernard at (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.