Just After Reports of Another North Korean Ballistic Missile Test ...

My followers began asking for clarity from an expert on the relationship between China and North Korea's nuclear program.  I asked Gordon Chang, author of Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the World, and internationally respected pundit on security matters in Asia, about this.





With his comprehensive approach and gracious style, Gordon Chang is renowned for his incisive analyses and commentary.  He lived and worked in Shanghai as Counsel to the American law firm Paul Weiss, and earlier in Hong Kong as Partner in the international law firm Baker & McKenzie.  He has briefed the United States CIA, Pentagon and State Department on security developments and he shared this assessment with me this week:

"North Korea has three launchers--theTaepodong-2, the KN-08, and KN-14--that can hit the lower 48 states.  The better view is that the North cannot mate a nuclear warhead to them, but that is only a matter of about three years.  The North Koreans have already put a nuke on top of their intermediate-range Nodong.

Beijing could rein in North Korea, but Chinese leaders do not want to do so because they view America as their main strategic rival.  They find Kim Jong Un's antics useful in keeping us and our allies off balance. 

We could force Beijing into being helpful--by, for example, imposing secondary sanctions on Chinese banks and enterprises--but so far there have been only tentative moves to do so.  The U.S. sanctions on Dandong Hongxiang industrial, imposed last month, show attitudes in the American capital are changing.  They are changing because an unstable Kim Jong Un in control of the world's most destructive weapons is presenting American policymakers with little choice."

N.B. Gordon Chang will be presenting The New Nuclear Politics: China, Iran and North Korea, at the Election Night 2016 Security Summit, 80 Minutes Around the World: Security Briefings for the Next American President, in Westport, CT, on November 8th.

 

As Washington Hosts World Leaders at the Nuclear Security Summit ...



I asked Dr. Paul Bracken, author of the tour de force book, The Second Nuclear Age: Strategy, Danger and New Power Politics, for a comment. He replied:

 

 

The pace of military technology has reached a level not seen since the cold war in the 1950s.  Drones, cyber-war, targeted killings, anti-satellites weapons, hypersonic missiles are coming into the forces not just of the United States but of many countries.  Add to this atomic weapons, and soon, hydrogen bombs for India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea.  We are entering a new world of technology, yet the old political order of nation states remains essentially unchanged.  The 2016 Nuclear Security Summit shows the growing tension of a political order that is out of phase with technology advances.  Something has to give, and I don't think it's going to come from a slowdown in technology.

 

 

Scroll down for video of Dr. Bracken speaking to the North Korean missile program, STEM, emerging technologies and other key topics in security.

Talking with Paul Bracken: Today's and Tomorrow's Technologies, Developments and Dangers in the Nuclear Arena

It was grey and cold outside when I arrived at Yale University to sit in on Dr. Paul Bracken’s class, Strategy, Technology & War, but illuminating and warm in his classroom.  There, eighty-five coeds and grad students from around the world (selected from hundreds who seek registration) engaged in a back and forth about strategy and the function of nuclear weapons from the Cold War into this “the second nuclear age.”  That is also the title of Dr. Bracken’s tour de force book, The Second Nuclear Age:  Strategy, Danger and the New Power Politics, a clarion-call for policymakers, technologists, investors and industrialists about this precarious era of nuclear proliferation.  It was just a few days after the North Korean missile launch when I arrived at the School of Management and I was percolating with questions for Dr. Bracken which he graciously addressed in our interview after class.  I am happy to bring the highlights to you in this space. 

Lisa Bernard:  Just this weekend, North Korea successfully launched a long range missile – a provocation deemed so serious that the United Nations Security Council convened an emergency session.   In what context can we understand this?

 

Lisa Bernard:  A recent article in the Wall Street Journal, The Other Dangers from That North Korean Nuke Test, by Messrs. Gilinsky and Sokolski, describes a frightening development, namely, the increasingly available advanced technologies and materials for hastened and state-of-the-art nuclear weapons development.  What does this mean, practically speaking, for the proliferation of WMD - weapons of mass destruction? 

 

Lisa Bernard:  We are coming upon the twentieth anniversary of STEM and the tenth anniversary of President George W. Bush’s American Competitiveness Initiative to bolster STEM.  With a B.S. in Engineering, a Ph.D. in Operations Research, as a Professor of Political Science and Business and a consultant to various branches of the U.S. government, you are uniquely positioned to view the impact of these efforts.  Professor Bracken, what do you see?

Lisa Bernard:  Paul, you speak and write so insightfully about the symbiotic relationship between Silicon Valley and the Pentagon.  Given the dynamics of national security today, what do you think might we see come out of Silicon Valley in the next chapter of their connection?

 

 

Lisa Bernard:  The gravity of these matters is sobering - even overwhelming. Thank you for helping me help my audience gain some perspective on the news we hear and the realities we face.  Your time and sharing of your expertise is very much appreciated. 


Would you like to host Paul Bracken and continue this conversation at your organization?  Call me at (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  I’d be happy to help you through the particulars and arrangements.