Regional Security Concerns and North Korea's Short and Intermediate-range Systems Weigh-in Heavily as President Trump Prepares for Historic Summit



Clear from President Trump's press conference yesterday is that his approach to his summit with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un is holistic and sensitive to the distinct concerns of American allies on and beyond the theater of the Korean Peninsula.  While the United States is vulnerable to North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles, allies like South Korea and Japan are vulnerable to the regime's increasingly mobile and precise short and intermediate-range rockets.  A curious addition to the North Korean arsenal was spotted on February 8th of this year at the Pre-Olympics Military Parade in Pyongyang.  Carried on hinged Transporter-Erector-Launchers (TELs - pictured below) was what appeared to be a variant of the Russian Iskander missile, perhaps now solid-fuelled for a faster, longer range and more agile version.  Any enhanced "shoot and scoot" capability for the North Koreans is particularly troubling to South Korea and worrisome for Japan.

Photo Credit: The Diplomat



It's been more than two months since the photo-op for for this new missile - dubbed the "Juche-Iskander" for it's distinctly North Korean innovations or renovations of the Russian prototype.  But we still don't know if this rocket is short or intermediate-range as it has not been flight-tested.  I wondered if this was part of Kim Jong Un's conciliatory pause in missile testing in advance of the Trump-Kim Summit or if there was something else in play.  I asked as much of Gordon G. Chang, author of Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the World, in my interview with him on April 14, 2018.  He replied:

I then pressed him to address the concerns in the context of the Trump-Kim Summit about this smaller and possibly non-nuclear missile that has military strategists concerned - beyond the worry of the damage it could do when priced-right and sold by North Korea in the global marketplace.  He responded:





More from my interview with Gordon Chang will be posted in advance of the Trump-Kim Summit.  In the interim, I urge you to follow him @GordonGChang and read his articles at www.TheDailyBeast.com.  See him live if you can or hear him on radio on The John Batchelor Show on 770 AM in the greater New York City area.  His talks, commentary and analyses are timely and cutting edge.

 

 

 Photo Credit: Lydia Chang

 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm and speakers bureau devoted to matters of national, cyber and international security.  Experts in these areas offer reports, briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To host a speaker or arrange for a consultation call (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  See more of their work at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and at  www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.   

 

Ground Zero: North Korea as the First Rogue Member of the Nuclear Club - An Interview with Dr. Paul Bracken, Leading International Security Strategist

Amid natural disasters of unprecedented magnitude, a man-made nightmare lurks in the North Korean nuclear program.   Not given to drama, exaggeration or panic, it was my mission to reality-check my understanding of the threat Kim Jong Un’s arsenal and his intentions pose to the stability of the North Korean Peninsula, the vulnerability of our allies South Korea and Japan, and the security of the west coast of the United States.  To this end, I interviewed Dr. Paul Bracken, author of the The Dynamics of the Second Nuclear Age:  Strategy, Dangers and the New Power Politics and Fire in the East: The Rise of Asian Military Power and the Second Nuclear Age and The Command and Control of Nuclear Forces.   Paul Bracken’s assessments are distinctly comprehensive.  He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Columbia University and a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Yale University.   A Professor of Political Science and Operations Management, his grasp of the technology, history, players and politics – and the interplay of them all – is second to none.  War gaming under conditions of stress and uncertainty is what Paul Bracken does for private industry and the United States military.  What the games reveal about human nature, conflict escalation, and exogenous factors that alter strategic plans is surprising, sobering and instructive.  The following are excerpts from our talk.

BERNARD: Seismic tests support the North Korean claim that it tested a hydrogen bomb, however "sniffers" - the aircraft that fly through debris - have not detected radiation levels consistent with such a nuclear explosion.  How much of this claim is hype from North Korean State Media? 

 

BERNARD:  Earlier in 2017 you reasoned that Kim Jong Un would make the development of an H-bomb a top priority.  Suddenly, within just months, that goal may well have been realized.  What accounts for the lightening-pace of the North Korean nuclear program? 

 

BERNARD:  Of the nine states in the world that are nuclear-armed, North Korea is the one over which analysts and practitioners of foreign policy are losing sleep.  What is so troubling here?

BERNARD:  Citizens voice their worries about the rhetoric coming from President Trump towards Kim Jong Un during this crisis.  What do you make of the President's remarks? 

BERNARD:  We've seen the Trump administration's management of this challenge via the United Nations and the U.S. Congress with economic sanctions and through Secretary of State Tillerson's talks with Chinese and Japanese leaders.  What would American leadership look like for this crisis and on nuclear (non) proliferation in general?



BERNARD: Where is the United States in terms of modernizing our aging nuclear arsenals and committing to strategic thinking and planning for this second nuclear age?

 

BERNARD:  As we wrap up, it feels befitting to share an excerpt of an interview I read at the outset of my research.  Asked about your first reaction to the ongoing dispute with North Korea you replied:  "Stanley Kubrick (Dr. Strangelove) had no imagination.  Five years ago (2011, as Obama was going to eliminate nuclear weapons from the world), if anyone said a nuclear poker game would play out between 'The Donald' and Kim Jong-un, no one - no one - would have believed it.  Well, here we are ...."  Thank you for your generosity with your time, candor and expertise.  

Paul Bracken is available for formal presentations and distinguished lectures via Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak, LLC.  (203) 293-4741.  LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  Learn more about him at www.SecuritySpeak.net.