Well Beyond the Red Line Crossed: Refugees, Reconstruction and Realpolitik in Syria Under Bashar al-Assad

 

 



This spring saw the beginning of the end of the Syrian Civil War that finds President Bashar al-Assad having prevailed both politically and militarily.  While the country remains a violent place, developments and numbers are noteworthy and critical in the consideration of U.S. security policy in its humanitarian, economic, military and diplomatic dimensions going forward in the region.  Among them, eleven million Syrians are displaced - both in and outside of their homeland whose infrastructure is demolished.  In control of more than sixty per cent of the country, President Assad has begun reconstruction and there are reports are that businesses are starting to open and contracts being negotiated by individuals, governments and companies.  Estimates of the cost of rebuilding Syria range from $200 billion to $1 trillion with most analysts and Bashar al-Assad himself agreeing on $400 billion price tag.  ISIS has been quashed.  Russian protection is cemented.  Iran has been told by Russia to withdraw its militias beginning with those near the border with Israel.

These circumstances prompted me to reach out to Ambassador Frederic C. Hof, appointed in 2012 as former Special Advisor for transition in Syria to Secretary of State Hilary Clinton after a year spent working to ease tensions between Syria and its neighbors in early 2011.  Ambassador Hof served in that position until September 2012 when he resigned in recognition that "the White House had little appetite for protecting [Syrian] civilians (beyond writing checks for refugee relief) and little interest in even devising a strategy to implement President Barak Obama's stated desire that Syrian President Bashar Assad step aside."  Ambassador Hof went outside the U.S. government and into the private sector as Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, a program he would later direct for six years, in order to promote a more effective U.S. policy towards the Syria he described as "plunging into an uncharted abyss - a humanitarian abomination of the first order."  I met with Fred Hof in New York City on Tuesday, June 12th at the Bard College Globalization and International Affairs Program where he is teaching a seminar, Ten Principles for Effective Diplomacy.  With a view towards the stabilization of Syria and the strategic interests of the United States, I asked him what he thought the U.S. can and ought to be doing at this critical juncture.  His response:





My follow up question concerned the hurdles, obstacles and practical considerations of investing in the reconstruction of Syria and the possibility that China is in a better position than Russia, Lebanon, Jordan and other state contenders for long term investment.  Ambassador Hof replied:

 

Ambassador Fred Hof's professional life has focused largely on the Middle East with a long history of service and study in Jordan, Israel, Lebanon and Syria.  He is known internationally for his expertise in Arab affairs and for his integrity, bravery and intellectual honesty in diplomacy, negotiations and reporting.  I am grateful for his time and insights and shall be posting more of our interview, The New Middle East, in upcoming weeks.  

 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm and speakers bureau devoted to matters of national, cyber and international security.  Experts in these areas offer reports, briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To host Ambassador Hof for a speech, call (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  See more of their work at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and at  www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.   



Terrorism in America: A Reality Check on the Surreal



 

Sunday, the 12^th of June, was surreal.  I was outdoors in the fresh air and morning sunshine reading Holy War on the Home Front: The Secret Islamic Terror Network in the United States in preparation for my interview with its author, Dr. Harvey Wolf Kushner, Director of the Homeland Security and Terrorism Institute at LIU Post.  When I left for work early that morning I had heard about "a shooting" in Orlando.  By lunchtime, I learned that the attack was at an LGBTQ nightclub, had been declared an act of terrorism and the death toll was climbing. News outlets reported that the terrorist declared his allegiance to ISIS at the outset of his rampage.  My heart was racing as I tried frantically to recall where my gay family members said they would be over the weekend.  There were more ironies than I could process, including that I left this book for last in my reading of Dr. Kushner’s publications.  Why?  Because, I reasoned, it was published in 2004 and now it is 2016, and surely things have “changed.”  I would read it – but last and leisurely on the Sunday before the interview.  By the time I got home to hear President Obama’s address to the nation, it was all too clear that Harvey Kushner’s book is still pertinent in 2016.  Words from his Introduction were haunting me, “I chair a department at a university, but I quickly learned that when dealing with terrorists that death is not academic.  Terrorists kill people.  They pull triggers, plant bombs, and blast holes in the NYC skyline.”  

Like so many Americans, I am forlorn and on Tuesday, June 14^th, when I walked into Harvey Kushner’s office, I couldn’t hold back.  “These terrorists are playing ‘soft-target roulette’ with us,” I proffered.  “That’s what’s got us feeling anxious.  The Boston Marathon, San Bernardino, and now Orlando …. We get it.  While we are exercising, recreating, and socializing – precisely to blow off stress – we are actually most vulnerable to opportunistic terrorists.  We don’t need to be flying or on the high seas.  That is what is now so unnerving.”  A genial host and gracious respondent, Harvey Wolf Kushner immediately delivered the perspective available only from one with the breadth and depth of counter-terrorism experience his forty-plus years of service provides.  From the 1972 Munich Olympics Massacre, through the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 at Lockerbie, to the mass shooting in Orlando, Harvey Kushner embodies his book, Encyclopedia of Terrorism.  The walls of his office are alive with commendations and warm letters of appreciation for his service from elected officials, representatives of allied governments, those in law enforcement at all levels, as well as branches of the U.S. military and federal agencies. I couldn’t help but note how fortunate his graduate students are to study with him and the notable faculty he has assembled from among the best professionals actively engaged in counter-terrorism. Congress declared his institute a National Security Center of Excellence. 

I asked for twenty minutes but Harvey Kushner gave me a full afternoon of his time as he responded to my questions and the concerns of my followers at Security Briefs.  I left the interview wiser, more insightful and crystal clear on one thing:  Dr. Harvey Wolf Kushner is, and has been, unabashedly devoted to one goal: keeping civilians safe from terrorists. Here are some excerpts. 

BERNARD:  I read in your 2004 book that "[m]ost say even three years after 9/11, the FBI and related federal intelligence and law-enforcement agencies still don't 'download' real-time-information to local agencies."  I am hearing that very same thing in the analyses of the Orlando Massacre in 2016. Is this so and why?

 



BERNARD:  We heard it with the Tsarnaev brothers, Nidal Hasan and now again with Omar Mateen - they "fell off" the FBI's watch list.  How does such a thing happen in the post 9/11 era and what does this portend for "lone wolf" attacks?



 

BERNARD:  My followers at Security Briefs are educators, retail executives, medical professionals, practitioners in law and accounting, clergy, and other concerned citizens who are responsible for other people - their students, clients, customers, congregants and families.  What steps can they take to make their workplaces and social spaces are more secure?
 

 

BERNARD:  In a Q&A Session with former Newtown Chief of Police, Michael Kehoe, I heard him underscore the importance for local law enforcement to maintain "informal" communication with first responders and emergency management professionals at all levels - county, state and federal.  In short, you need your crisis management allies to be just a cell-phone call away.  Your reaction?

 

BERNARD:  Many of my followers at Security Briefs are professionals in human resources, law, the military, financial services, IT, etc., who are considering applying their expertise in a different capacity in the next phases of their careers.  Others are parents of college-bound kids considering their first-career options.  What are the job and career prospects for those interested in counter-terrorism?





 

BERNARD:  In seven months, we Americans will inaugurate a new President and Commander-in-Chief.  What guidelines would you offer her or him?



 

 

BERNARD:  Harvey Kushner, it is good to know you. Thank you for your service and for your thoughts and candor this afternoon.

 

Lisa Bernard is Founder and President of Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak, LLC, a speakers bureau devoted to educating people from all walks of life on matters of national, global and cyber-security.  To discuss your need for a guest speaker, contact her at LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net or via phone at (203) 293-4741.

 



 

 

ISIS: Crisis or Crucible?

Last week’s shift in White House policy regarding ISIS in Afghanistan occasioned me to interview Dr. Austin G. Long, a specialist in counterinsurgency and irregular warfare.  We met up at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies.  Dr. Long was an analyst and adviser to the U.S. military in Iraq from 2007 to 2008 and to the Combined Forces Special Operations Component Command in Kabul, Afghanistan in 2011 and to NATO Special Operations Component Command/Special Operations Joint Task Force in 2013.   I had four questions for him.

BERNARD:  Austin, American and British news agencies report that thanks to international air strikes ISIS has lost as much as forty per cent of the territory it held in Iraq and twenty per cent of the ground it commandeered in Syria.  How meaningful are these numbers and how do they translate into actual degradation of ISIS?

 

BERNARD:  As I mentioned in my set-up, just this week The White House gave the Pentagon a green light to target ISIS in Afghanistan, suggesting – based on the President’s State of the Union message—that there is a threat coming from ISIS in Afghanistan – a threat to us here in the homeland.  What kind of threat does “ISIL–K” pose to the United States? 

 

BERNARD:  Syria, Libya, Afghanistan … failed states where ISIS has exploited the situation.  Where next do you see a “failed state” ISIS might seize? 

 

BERNARD:  There’s a spectrum of thinking here in the U.S. – all sincere, it seems to me – on how to rid the world of ISIS:  destroy it militarily, counter it ideologically, starve it financially.  Given what you know about how ISIS’s motivation and nature, what’s your sense of what would get the job done?

 

BERNARD:  Austin, I thank you for your time and sharing of your insights in such a concise manner.  I’ve been in the audience when you’ve made full-length presentations and moderated panels and this format, I see, is yet another forum in which we can learn so much from you.  It is a pleasure to represent you at Lisa Bernard’s SecuritySpeak and I note that those who wish to host you for talks and briefings can contact me directly by calling (203) 293-4741 or emailing  LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net and view your full profile at www.SecuritySpeak.net.