Showing posts with label Iraq. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iraq. Show all posts

Monday, June 25, 2018

Well Beyond the Red Line Crossed: Refugees, Reconstruction and Realpolitik in Syria Under Bashar al-Assad

 
 

This spring saw the beginning of the end of the Syrian Civil War that finds President Bashar al-Assad having prevailed both politically and militarily.  While the country remains a violent place, developments and numbers are noteworthy and critical in the consideration of U.S. security policy in its humanitarian, economic, military and diplomatic dimensions going forward in the region.  Among them, eleven million Syrians are displaced - both in and outside of their homeland whose infrastructure is demolished.  In control of more than sixty per cent of the country, President Assad has begun reconstruction and there are reports are that businesses are starting to open and contracts being negotiated by individuals, governments and companies.  Estimates of the cost of rebuilding Syria range from $200 billion to $1 trillion with most analysts and Bashar al-Assad himself agreeing on $400 billion price tag.  ISIS has been quashed.  Russian protection is cemented.  Iran has been told by Russia to withdraw its militias beginning with those near the border with Israel.

These circumstances prompted me to reach out to Ambassador Frederic C. Hof, appointed in 2012 as former Special Advisor for transition in Syria to Secretary of State Hilary Clinton after a year spent working to ease tensions between Syria and its neighbors in early 2011.  Ambassador Hof served in that position until September 2012 when he resigned in recognition that "the White House had little appetite for protecting [Syrian] civilians (beyond writing checks for refugee relief) and little interest in even devising a strategy to implement President Barak Obama's stated desire that Syrian President Bashar Assad step aside."  Ambassador Hof went outside the U.S. government and into the private sector as Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, a program he would later direct for six years, in order to promote a more effective U.S. policy towards the Syria he described as "plunging into an uncharted abyss - a humanitarian abomination of the first order."  I met with Fred Hof in New York City on Tuesday, June 12th at the Bard College Globalization and International Affairs Program where he is teaching a seminar, Ten Principles for Effective Diplomacy.  With a view towards the stabilization of Syria and the strategic interests of the United States, I asked him what he thought the U.S. can and ought to be doing at this critical juncture.  His response:





My follow up question concerned the hurdles, obstacles and practical considerations of investing in the reconstruction of Syria and the possibility that China is in a better position than Russia, Lebanon, Jordan and other state contenders for long term investment.  Ambassador Hof replied:

 
Ambassador Fred Hof's professional life has focused largely on the Middle East with a long history of service and study in Jordan, Israel, Lebanon and Syria.  He is known internationally for his expertise in Arab affairs and for his integrity, bravery and intellectual honesty in diplomacy, negotiations and reporting.  I am grateful for his time and insights and shall be posting more of our interview, The New Middle East, in upcoming weeks.  
 
Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm and speakers bureau devoted to matters of national, cyber and international security.  Experts in these areas offer reports, briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To host Ambassador Hof for a speech, call (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  See more of their work at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and at  www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.   


Friday, December 23, 2016

Zalmay Khalilzad's THE ENVOY Earns its Place on the Permanent Bookshelf


ISBN 978-1-250-08300-5 from St. Martin’s Press, New York, New York, 2016, $27.99.  Available on Amazon, $17.99. 
 
It’s going to be a long winter so before the January blues set in, go get your copy of THE ENVOY: From Kabul to the White House, My Journey through a Turbulent World.  It’s Zalmay Khalilzad’s memoir, rich in more than mere reflections on his tenures as U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq and the U.N.  Though it would have been enough to put in perspective and give us a bird’s eye view on twenty-plus years of seismic events, American foreign policy, and the makeover of the greater Middle East, this book encompasses so much more.  It is a poignant and often refreshing view of America through the eyes of a young visitor from an ancient and mysterious land.  Of his time as a student in California at age 15 on an AFS exchange trip in 1966, he recounts,
I was deeply impressed by the American talent for organization.  Coming from the more anarchic environment of Afghanistan, I had the impression that in America everything functioned as if it were being carried out by a military organization.  During field trips, the bus rolled up on time, and the kids were ready to go.  The people at our destination were prepared and expecting us.   Arrangements for lunch and drinks had been made and went off without a hitch.  Guides completed their tours with precision.  The bus got us all back to school just as our families were arriving to pick us up.  It was a marvel to watch.
Not only do we get a glimpse of America through his wonder-filled eyes, but we get an in-depth and unorthodox view of his homeland as well. The book is a window to an Afghanistan rich in meaningful family and religious traditions.  It describes a cuisine that features the bounty of the earth and a culture that treasures its children and offers a childhood of splendors - kite flying, sleeping under the stars in summer, and horseback riding to school.  It is a peek at a once-empire most Americans couldn’t find on a map before 1979 when the Soviet invasion made it a marker in the Cold War.  It is a glance at a once treasured land before it became synonymous with names and events that rankle: the Taliban, invasion, occupation, al Qaeda.   After one reads THE ENVOY, Afghanistan won’t simply be the place where Osama Bin Laden plotted the 9/11 attack.

Professor Khalilzad escorts us to these equally distinct Afghanistans in a memoir that layers the tender observations of a sensitive and perceptive boy, the sophisticated and evolving values of a young man processing his life from outside Afghanistan, and the conundrums facing the scholar/policy analyst turned presidential envoy who returns home on his assignments - home being both Afghanistan and his beloved America.   Never neglected in his recollections are his adored family – from his parents and siblings to his wife and sons – or his thoughts on cultural sexism and feminism, people’s decisions in the context of their circumstances, and the tricky co-existence of both antiquity and modernity on this one earth.  This the connective tissue in Zalmay Khalilzad’s memoir and what keeps it real.  This is what makes it a great read not just for the followers of foreign affairs but in general. 
For those who do contemplate national and international security matters, and especially the crafting, instruments and implementation of U.S. foreign policy, THE ENVOY is a telling and textured narrative.   Presented in the first person, it is a rare ticket to front row seats in the theatres of American universities, think-tanks, the White House, compounds and embassies in Afghanistan and Iraq and the United Nations.  It weaves seamlessly in and out of national, tribal, regional and world events on emotional, intuitive, intellectual and professional levels, making the read as easy as it is riveting.  Set up in time periods that read chronologically, this memoir facilitates reading in spurts and allows for the digestion of tremendous detail.  It's an up-close and personal look at the disparate players, complex politics and the unprecedented circumstances that produced U.S. policies, missions, and outcomes in the greater Middle East from Presidents Ronald Wilson Reagan through George W. Bush. 
I refer to Zal Khalilzad as “Professor” because he was mine at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.  At that time, I was one of the very few women in the International Security Policy Studies program, and we felt our minority status – but not in Zal’s course.  There was something unique in his approach to people that was organically egalitarian.  He held a respect for humanity that didn’t carry a banner (which is not unusual to do at my alma mater) but nonetheless modeled it as constantly and naturally as he breathed.  Not until this book did I understand the roots of this.  After reading THE ENVOY, I see his facility for respecting individuals in their own dynamic as his gift.  It explains why he views himself as an optimist while his work echoes the voice of realism.  They are resolved in that he sees clearly the core dynamic of a person or group and then works with great faith to bring them and theirs to their full situational best.  Time and again, he shares his sentiments, humbly and candidly, on these often gear-grinding and Sisyphean-like missions.  About returning to Kabul, he writes,
In the absence of Afghan or international forces in the countryside, warlords were establishing, or reestablishing, their fiefdoms.  Before I was on the ground in Afghanistan, I had sympathized with the idea of maintaining a light footprint, largely because of Afghans' historic xenophobia.  But when I spoke with ordinary Afghans in Mazar and Herat during an early trip in 2002, I began to see how mistaken I was.  People confided that when they saw members of the local militia coming toward them on the street, they tensed up, expecting to be harassed, robbed, or beaten for no reason.  By contrast, when they saw a soldier from a foreign country, they relaxed.  The difficulty was that the United States was working with the warlords.  The warlords had carried the burden of the ground campaign against the Taliban and al Qaeda and, in the absence of anything like an effective national army, were still needed to take on the insurgents.
Descriptions like “highest-ranking Muslim to ever serve in a U.S. administration” do not do justice to the depth or distinction of the special envoy the United States and our associates in the greater Middle East enjoyed in Zalmay Khalilzad.  His life’s journey and service, as revealed in this book, are indelible reminders that no one-line label can come close to capturing the sensibilities, character, values and vision that define an individual.  Nor can it suggest the breadth of the contribution they make.  Indeed, Professor Khalilzad continues to contribute, bringing perspective from his experience to bear on today’s challenges in the region and beyond.  On Page 283, he shares five lessons learned from the American experience in Iraq, and they seem as on point for the incoming 45th American President as for the exiting one.  Number five is one I have heard consistently across my interviews with security experts of all stripes and warrants repeating: “Exercise presidential command.”  Chapter Twenty-Six, A More Dangerous World 2016 and Beyond, is a security manifesto for the United States.  Professor Khalilzad presents a survey of the challenges, threats, and opportunities, as well as the tools, talents, and Achilles’ heel of America as a world power facing powerful shifts in the global arena.   As such, this pearl from 2016 is a timely read and belongs on the bookshelf for the New Year and beyond as well.