Well Beyond the Red Line Crossed: Refugees, Reconstruction and Realpolitik in Syria Under Bashar al-Assad

 

 



This spring saw the beginning of the end of the Syrian Civil War that finds President Bashar al-Assad having prevailed both politically and militarily.  While the country remains a violent place, developments and numbers are noteworthy and critical in the consideration of U.S. security policy in its humanitarian, economic, military and diplomatic dimensions going forward in the region.  Among them, eleven million Syrians are displaced - both in and outside of their homeland whose infrastructure is demolished.  In control of more than sixty per cent of the country, President Assad has begun reconstruction and there are reports are that businesses are starting to open and contracts being negotiated by individuals, governments and companies.  Estimates of the cost of rebuilding Syria range from $200 billion to $1 trillion with most analysts and Bashar al-Assad himself agreeing on $400 billion price tag.  ISIS has been quashed.  Russian protection is cemented.  Iran has been told by Russia to withdraw its militias beginning with those near the border with Israel.

These circumstances prompted me to reach out to Ambassador Frederic C. Hof, appointed in 2012 as former Special Advisor for transition in Syria to Secretary of State Hilary Clinton after a year spent working to ease tensions between Syria and its neighbors in early 2011.  Ambassador Hof served in that position until September 2012 when he resigned in recognition that "the White House had little appetite for protecting [Syrian] civilians (beyond writing checks for refugee relief) and little interest in even devising a strategy to implement President Barak Obama's stated desire that Syrian President Bashar Assad step aside."  Ambassador Hof went outside the U.S. government and into the private sector as Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, a program he would later direct for six years, in order to promote a more effective U.S. policy towards the Syria he described as "plunging into an uncharted abyss - a humanitarian abomination of the first order."  I met with Fred Hof in New York City on Tuesday, June 12th at the Bard College Globalization and International Affairs Program where he is teaching a seminar, Ten Principles for Effective Diplomacy.  With a view towards the stabilization of Syria and the strategic interests of the United States, I asked him what he thought the U.S. can and ought to be doing at this critical juncture.  His response:





My follow up question concerned the hurdles, obstacles and practical considerations of investing in the reconstruction of Syria and the possibility that China is in a better position than Russia, Lebanon, Jordan and other state contenders for long term investment.  Ambassador Hof replied:

 

Ambassador Fred Hof's professional life has focused largely on the Middle East with a long history of service and study in Jordan, Israel, Lebanon and Syria.  He is known internationally for his expertise in Arab affairs and for his integrity, bravery and intellectual honesty in diplomacy, negotiations and reporting.  I am grateful for his time and insights and shall be posting more of our interview, The New Middle East, in upcoming weeks.  

 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm and speakers bureau devoted to matters of national, cyber and international security.  Experts in these areas offer reports, briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To host Ambassador Hof for a speech, call (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  See more of their work at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and at  www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.