America in the Claws of the Russian Bear: Clarity After Helsinki from Internationally Renowned Authority on Russian Foreign Policy, Dr. Stephen J. Blank



Photo Credit: Slate.com 



Last week in our pre-summit interview, the venerable Dr. Stephen J. Blank set realistic expectations for the issues to be raised by U.S. President Donald Trump and the responses and rhetoric likely to come from Russian President Vladimir Putin at their July 16, 2018 summit in Finland.  The themes explored in our interview presaged the hazards and disconnects that contributed to the catastrophe in Helsinki - and that is no surprise to those who follow Dr. Blank.  (https://securiitybriefs.blogspot.com/2018/07/calibrating-expectations-for-trump.html)  He is a University of Pennsylvania and University of Chicago-educated historian of the Russian tsarist, Soviet and post-communist eras and has a breadth and depth of insight that is second to none among the world's analysts of Russian foreign policy and the implications for U.S.-Russia relations and international security more broadly.  He served for twenty-plus years as a Professor of National Security Studies at the U.S. Army War College and today is Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C.  Having studied and travelled extensively across the former USSR and with a professional command of the Russian language, Stephen Blank is a meticulous analyst of Russian events, players and policies and his encyclopedic knowledge of things Russian and stellar assessments have him speaking to civilian and military audiences across the Americas, Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

I am honored to represent Steve Blank for speaking engagements and welcome him to my interview chair at historic moments like this - the debacle that was President Trump's performance in Helsinki and the conquest that was Vladimir Putin's.  I met with Steve again on Wednesday in his Washington, D.C. office under the weight of unprecedented disappointment in Monday's events.  As ever, he synthesized that which was brought to bear from the history, personalities and dynamics that got us to this somber point in U.S.- Russia relations.  One by one, or taken as a whole, the clips below escort us from the surreal that was Helsinki to the most practical security realities facing America today - and for the foreseeable future - in dealing with the bear that is Russia ruled by Vladimir Putin.

 



American Presidents come and go every four or eight years and Vladimir Putin seems to take advantage of this cycle and each President's palpable eagerness to improve U.S.-Russia relations.  What are likely to be Putin's next moves to project or expand Russian influence given his strategic objectives and his read and play of POTUS 45?

  





 

Last Friday the U.S. Department of Justice issued its indictment charging twelve Russians with a "sustained effort" to hack Democrats' emails and the Democratic National Committee's computers.  (https://www.justice.gov/file/1080281/download)  All twelve Russian nationals charged were members of the GRU - the Russian military intelligence service.  Why was the GRU deployed for this mission?

 

 

How likely is Vladimir Putin to take President Trump's whitewashing of Russian interference in the 2016 election as license to begin cyber-interference and even disruption of other U.S. systems and activities - say banking and financial services, media and/or communications? 



 

It's well documented that many who trespass against Vladimir Putin find themselves or their reputations assassinated.  As we Americans and our allies strain to understand President Trump's embrace of President Putin, is it out of the question that he [President Trump] and/or his beloved Czech-American and Slovenian-American children are under threat from the Kremlin?  

 

  



At Monday's press conference in Helsinki, Vladimir Putin reported that he spoke with President Trump about U.S. and Russian cooperation to combat the threat of "transnational crime."  With Russia so deeply involved in sex-trafficking across Eastern Europe, illegal drug and arms running in South America, identity theft and disinformation campaigns in North America and Europe, what is his motive for suggesting this?  It's as brazen and bizarre as his offer to co-investigate the hacking of the DNC - or is it? 

 

 

You've served for decades as a consultant to companies and governments on Russian and Eurasian energy matters.  Put Nord Stream 2 in perspective as a matter of international security. 

 





How is it that German Chancellor Angela Merkel is so comfortable with her country's reliance on Russian-supplied energy given her history with Vladimir Putin in particular and Russia and the former Soviet Union general?



What do individual and institutional investors need to keep in mind regarding Gazprom and other Russian energy companies? 

 



At the press conference following the private meeting on Monday between Presidents Trump and Putin there was mention of their discussions about banning weapons in space.  Beyond the Outer Space Treaty to which the United States, the Chinese and Russia (former USSR) are all signatories, what is Putin gaming for here besides the appearance of "great power status?" 

 



Realistically, where can U.S. - Russia relations go from here and how do we get there?



 

Notes: 

"Kompromat" is Russian for "compromising material"- that is information that could be used to damage the reputation of a public figure, create negative publicity for a politician or for blackmail of an individual.  Kopromat is held by Russian agents to ensure loyalty. 

 

Angela Merkel was born and lived in East Germany throughout and until the end of the Cold War and the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990.  Vladimir Putin served as an agent of the KGB in East Germany from 1985 until the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. 

 

 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm devoted to matters of international security.  Experts like Dr. Stephen J. Blank offer briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring analyses and understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To secure Dr. Blank for your next program reach out to  (203) 293-4741 or LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.   Learn more at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and follow us www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.

 

 

 

 



Calibrating Expectations for the Trump-Putin Summit: An Interview with Dr. Stephen J. Blank, Internationally Renowned Authority on Russian Foreign Policy and U.S.- Russia Relations

 

Photo Credit: Reuters

 

There is much "President Trump must" and "President Trump should" and "this summit could" being volleyed about in advance of the Trump-Putin meeting in Helsinki, Finland this coming Monday, July 16, 2018.  Yet, beyond reports of the schedule - a one-on-one meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, followed by an extended bilateral meeting and then a working lunch attended by senior U.S. and Russian officials - little about the substantive agenda has been revealed.  The menu of possible items is obvious and lengthy: civil war in Syria, conflict in Ukraine, Crimea, Iran - economic sanctions, the nuclear deal and its presence and proxies in Syria, accusations of Russian interference in U.S. elections, cyber-warfare, Russian disinformation campaigns, NATO expansion, nuclear arms control and terrorism.  Historically, the outcomes of U.S.-Russia (and Soviet) summits - agreements, engagements and points of contention - have had consequences as serious and far-reaching as the list of topics is long.  And so the world anticipates and speculates, worries and wonders about this meeting of two men, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. 

 

Awaiting the agenda, I reached out to Dr. Stephen J. Blank, a foremost American authority on Russian foreign policy and Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C.  Dr. Blank is a distinguished and prolific speaker at my firm, Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak, LLC.  The breadth of his knowledge on Russia is second-to-none and his analyses incisive and forthright.  I began my exchange with Steve yesterday, just as President Trump made an off-the-cuff remark as he left for the NATO summit in Brussels.  The President said that of all the meetings ahead, the one with Putin "may be the easiest of them all."  And so I began my two-part interview probing the dynamics of the U.S.-Russia and Trump-Putin relationships. 

 

 

BERNARD:  There is quite a call in the U.S. for President Trump to take Russia to task at this summit for interference in the 2016 U.S. Presidential election.  Vladimir Putin, a 16-year veteran of the Soviet KGB, is a spy by training and unlikely to ever reveal his sources, capabilities or methods.  If President Trump does bring this up in Helsinki, what can he realistically and practically expect to get from Putin beyond denials? 

BLANK:  If Trump brings up the interference issue Putin will stonewall him and play back Trump's own denials.  And if that does not suffice, he will then bring up the perennial Russian refrain, "You're no better than we are and you have no standing to bring up this question." 

  



BERNARD: By all accounts, Russia's cyber-capacity is tremendous and includes both state resources and private operators who can be accessed by the Kremlin.  In earlier interviews and in your speeches, you explain how Russian foreign policy operates on a "DIME" -  diplomacy, information warfare, military maneuvers and economic exploitations.  Focusing on the "information war," including Russian trolls, RT and the like, what can President Trump realistically propose to President Putin to curtail this growing dimension of Russia's non-kinetic war on the U.S.?

BLANK:  I doubt Trump can (assuming he will) offer Putin anything to stop because that [information] war is the natural or default mode of Russian and KGB action and has been for over a century.  Any diplomatic agreement we make will be violated in short order.  What President Trump ought to do is devise and implement a U.S. - if not NATO - strategy to repay Putin in kind.  Only then might Russia seriously look for a compromise.

 



BERNARD:  In your lectures and briefings you've suggested that we understand Vladimir Putin as the head of a massive and international crime syndicate given Russia's many illegal activities and networks abroad.  Might it then make sense that President Trump "kisses the hand" and "bows to the don" of Russia?  Putin reacts well to "public displays of respect."  It's his "price of admission" if you will. 

BLANK:  Whatever Trump may think or desire, unlike Russia, we are not a mafia state. 



BERNARD:  In an earlier interview we explored the curiously close and counter-intuitive relationship between Russian President Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.   (https://securiitybriefs.blogspot.com/2018/05/the-curiously-close-relationship.html)    Is there any chance Presidents Trump and Putin could sculpt their relationship into one that more closely resembles the functional Netanyahu-Putin partnership you've described in earlier interviews and articles?  

 

BLANK:  The Netanyahu-Putin relationship is a very unemotional, unsentimental one based on strict observance of each other's red lines and disinterest in the costs of the policies for others.  I seriously doubt that it would be in our American interest to have such a way with Putin or that it could be sustained domestically - let alone in the world at large. 

BERNARD:  Thank you, Dr. Blank.  I look forward to talking with you in D.C. next week to assess the summit's outcomes. 

 

A foremost analyst of Russian affairs and U.S. national and international security matters, Dr. Stephen J. Blank  lectures widely across North America, Asia, Europe and the Middle East to civilian and military audiences, at colleges and universities and briefs executives, elected officials, policymakers and other decision-makers in media, government and NGOs.  He is the author of over one thousand articles and fifteen books.  I am grateful for his generous nature and the time, expertise, candor and energy he brings to bear on security matters.  I look forward to part-two of this interview.

 



 



Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm devoted to matters of international security.  Experts like Dr. Stephen J. Blank offer briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring analyses and understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To secure a speaker for your program reach out to  (203) 293-4741 or LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.   Learn more at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and follow us www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.

Well Beyond the Red Line Crossed: Refugees, Reconstruction and Realpolitik in Syria Under Bashar al-Assad

 

 



This spring saw the beginning of the end of the Syrian Civil War that finds President Bashar al-Assad having prevailed both politically and militarily.  While the country remains a violent place, developments and numbers are noteworthy and critical in the consideration of U.S. security policy in its humanitarian, economic, military and diplomatic dimensions going forward in the region.  Among them, eleven million Syrians are displaced - both in and outside of their homeland whose infrastructure is demolished.  In control of more than sixty per cent of the country, President Assad has begun reconstruction and there are reports are that businesses are starting to open and contracts being negotiated by individuals, governments and companies.  Estimates of the cost of rebuilding Syria range from $200 billion to $1 trillion with most analysts and Bashar al-Assad himself agreeing on $400 billion price tag.  ISIS has been quashed.  Russian protection is cemented.  Iran has been told by Russia to withdraw its militias beginning with those near the border with Israel.

These circumstances prompted me to reach out to Ambassador Frederic C. Hof, appointed in 2012 as former Special Advisor for transition in Syria to Secretary of State Hilary Clinton after a year spent working to ease tensions between Syria and its neighbors in early 2011.  Ambassador Hof served in that position until September 2012 when he resigned in recognition that "the White House had little appetite for protecting [Syrian] civilians (beyond writing checks for refugee relief) and little interest in even devising a strategy to implement President Barak Obama's stated desire that Syrian President Bashar Assad step aside."  Ambassador Hof went outside the U.S. government and into the private sector as Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, a program he would later direct for six years, in order to promote a more effective U.S. policy towards the Syria he described as "plunging into an uncharted abyss - a humanitarian abomination of the first order."  I met with Fred Hof in New York City on Tuesday, June 12th at the Bard College Globalization and International Affairs Program where he is teaching a seminar, Ten Principles for Effective Diplomacy.  With a view towards the stabilization of Syria and the strategic interests of the United States, I asked him what he thought the U.S. can and ought to be doing at this critical juncture.  His response:





My follow up question concerned the hurdles, obstacles and practical considerations of investing in the reconstruction of Syria and the possibility that China is in a better position than Russia, Lebanon, Jordan and other state contenders for long term investment.  Ambassador Hof replied:

 

Ambassador Fred Hof's professional life has focused largely on the Middle East with a long history of service and study in Jordan, Israel, Lebanon and Syria.  He is known internationally for his expertise in Arab affairs and for his integrity, bravery and intellectual honesty in diplomacy, negotiations and reporting.  I am grateful for his time and insights and shall be posting more of our interview, The New Middle East, in upcoming weeks.  

 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm and speakers bureau devoted to matters of national, cyber and international security.  Experts in these areas offer reports, briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To host Ambassador Hof for a speech, call (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  See more of their work at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and at  www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.   



A Continuing North Korea-Syria Connection? A Post-Summit Consideration

 

As U.S. President Donald Trump was wrapping up his historic summit with North Korea's Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un with denuclearization a key topic on their agenda, my thoughts were on another meeting to be hosted by Kim Jong Un - that with Syria's President Bashar al-Assad.  Though no date for the Pyongyang meeting has been decided, the timing of the announcement of this is intriguing, even suspicious.  North Korea and Syria share a decades-long history of military collaboration and technology transfers.  While North Korea has halted testing of nuclear weapons and missiles in advance of the Trump-Kim summit, the country continues to enrich uranium and remains a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction. 

On Tuesday afternoon, June 12, 2018, I was eager to interview The Honorable Frederic C. Hof, former United Stated Special Advisor on transition in Syria on a host of developments in the Middle East.  We met at Bard College's Globalization and International Affairs Program in New York City where Ambassador Hof is teaching a seminar, Ten Principles for Effective Diplomacy.  I immediately posited my concern that the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula might bring with it the transfer of nuclear material and paraphernalia to a receptive Syria.  His response:

 

 

 

Ambassador Hof, an authority on Arab and Middle East affairs, and I continued to discuss trends that are defining a new Middle East.  The interview will be posting in the upcoming weeks. 

  







Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm and speakers bureau devoted to matters of national, cyber and international security.  Experts in these areas offer reports, briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To host a speaker or arrange for a consultation call (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  See more of their work at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and at  www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.   

The Trump-Kim Summit: Possibilities & Parameters Given the Personalities in Play



When word of a possible summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un was announced, I took a momentary step back from the daunting issues associated with the North Korean nuclear build-up to look at the two individuals creating this historic event.  A few facts about them put them in an exclusive club.  Both men are sons of fathers who cast long shadows across the family enterprises.  Each man is married to a younger, empirically beautiful and stylish woman.  They each have young children.  Both live in palatial homes and enjoy the trappings of great wealth.  Both are viewed cautiously by the world at large and their bombast and inflammatory rhetoric have left many aghast and some even scared given the military arsenals they command.  Add to that the nearly forty-year age difference and it begs the question, "Is it possible that a 'paternal' or even 'grand-paternal' dynamic between the elder President Trump, age 71, and his junior partner Supreme Leader Kim, age 34, could frame or influence their interpersonal dynamic and help them move us out of the nuclear danger zone?" 

Of course it is possible that President Trump and Supreme Leader Kim will enter the same room and engage in that uniquely human activity of recognizing that the time has come to do what is both practical and radical and right all at the same time - that all the military preparation, economic imperatives, political dynamics - and the fatigue and fears factors that accompany them - will synthesize into a fresh and clear shared vision.  We can certainly hope so.  But personal chemistry is one of those non-quantifiable factors that can be assessed by historians and analysts only after the fact.  In the hours before these men meet, we must return to the realities that brought us to this point in the first place.  This reminds me of the question I posed in April to Gordon G. Chang, author of NUCLEAR SHOWDOWN: North Korea Takes on the World, as plans for a summit were being explored.  His response:

 

That said, he went on to share:

 







Time will tell, as the adage goes.  And so we wait - with all eyes on Singapore for history of some kind to be made.

 



Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm and speakers bureau devoted to matters of national, cyber and international security.  Experts in these areas offer reports, briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To host a speaker or arrange for a consultation call (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  See more of their work at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and at  www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.



Understanding the Solid Relationship Between Israel and Russia

 

Photo Credit: The Times of Israel



This week marks the 73rd anniversary of the defeat of German Nazism and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin to mark the occasion.  Their diplomatic relationship - and the larger dynamic of Israel-Russia relations - are curious to so many Americans given the Russian patronage of Iran and the enmity between Israel and Iran.  For some perspective, I put the question to Dr. Stephen J. Blank, Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington D.C.  Dr. Blank is a historian of Russian foreign and military policies and his expertise spans the tsarist, Soviet and post-communist periods.  Ever generous with his time and expertise, he shared seven key reasons for what he called "the solidity of this relationship."

 

• First, Putin personally appears to have good feelings about Israel and Jews and Russian policy formally eschews anti-Semitism - though there is still a fair amount of  it in society and he is willing to use it in measured doses for his domestic needs. 

• Second,  Russian elite respect Israel's military-economic-technological prowess and know that Israel is a channel to Washington. 

• Third, there are thriving trade and investment relations between the two countries - even to the point where Israel has sold weapons to Russia. 

• Fourth, Israel respects Russian red lines and avoids actions that are provocative to her. If Israel has to cross a line it informs Moscow first.  This is something Putin et al. appreciate because it shows Israeli respect for Russian sensitivities and interests. 

• Fifth, Moscow knows that wars against Israel end badly for Arabs and bring the U.S. back into the Middle East in a big way. 

• Sixth,  there is some belief that the Russian Aliyah - the group of Russian Jews who have settled in and become citizens of Israel - is in some sense "our people" and they wish to preserve that tie.  They also understand what the USSR lost by pursuing anti-Semitic policies. 

• Seventh, it is critical to Moscow's Middle East policies and its sense of those policies that it be able to talk candidly to all parties and not be excessively identified with any one state's interests.  This also includes Israel precisely because of the many unsettled security issues in the region."

In hearing Dr. Blank's incisive comments I am reminded of the salient and sage words of another distinguished alumnus of University of Pennsylvania, Charles Dudley Warner, who observed that "[p]olitics makes strange bedfellows." 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm devoted to matters of international security.  Experts like Dr. Stephen J. Blank offer briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring analyses and understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To secure a speaker for your program reach out to  (203) 293-4741 or LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.   Learn more at  www.SecuritySpeak.net. 



Might "China Fatigue" Be a Factor for Kim Jong Un as the Supreme Leader Prepares to Meet President Trump in a Historic Summit?

Photo Credit: Daily Star



Twice in as many months we've learned of secret and surprise meetings between North Korea's Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un and China's President Xi Jinping, the more recent of which is taking place at the time of this writing and on the very day that U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a date and a venue have been decided for this historic Trump-Kim Summit.  This reminds me of the question I posed last month to Gordon G. Chang, author of NUCLEAR SHOWDOWN: North Korea Takes on the World, as plans for a summit were being explored.  I wanted to know if Kim Jong Un is aware of America's unique history and knack for turning enemies into prosperous and protected allies - Japan as the most obvious in North Korea's purview.  And, if so, how this might factor in to Kim Jong Un's thinking now that the major power heads of state are American President Trump for no more than two or six years, Russian President Putin for the foreseeable future and Chinese President Xi Jinping for life.  Could the narrow window of opportunity to "make a deal" with POTUS 45 be compelling to Kim?  His response:

 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm and speakers bureau devoted to matters of national, cyber and international security.  Experts in these areas offer reports, briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To host a speaker or arrange for a consultation call (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  See more of their work at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and at  www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.