The Trump-Kim Summit: Possibilities & Parameters Given the Personalities in Play



When word of a possible summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un was announced, I took a momentary step back from the daunting issues associated with the North Korean nuclear build-up to look at the two individuals creating this historic event.  A few facts about them put them in an exclusive club.  Both men are sons of fathers who cast long shadows across the family enterprises.  Each man is married to a younger, empirically beautiful and stylish woman.  They each have young children.  Both live in palatial homes and enjoy the trappings of great wealth.  Both are viewed cautiously by the world at large and their bombast and inflammatory rhetoric have left many aghast and some even scared given the military arsenals they command.  Add to that the nearly forty-year age difference and it begs the question, "Is it possible that a 'paternal' or even 'grand-paternal' dynamic between the elder President Trump, age 71, and his junior partner Supreme Leader Kim, age 34, could frame or influence their interpersonal dynamic and help them move us out of the nuclear danger zone?" 

Of course it is possible that President Trump and Supreme Leader Kim will enter the same room and engage in that uniquely human activity of recognizing that the time has come to do what is both practical and radical and right all at the same time - that all the military preparation, economic imperatives, political dynamics - and the fatigue and fears factors that accompany them - will synthesize into a fresh and clear shared vision.  We can certainly hope so.  But personal chemistry is one of those non-quantifiable factors that can be assessed by historians and analysts only after the fact.  In the hours before these men meet, we must return to the realities that brought us to this point in the first place.  This reminds me of the question I posed in April to Gordon G. Chang, author of NUCLEAR SHOWDOWN: North Korea Takes on the World, as plans for a summit were being explored.  His response:

 

That said, he went on to share:

 







Time will tell, as the adage goes.  And so we wait - with all eyes on Singapore for history of some kind to be made.

 



Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm and speakers bureau devoted to matters of national, cyber and international security.  Experts in these areas offer reports, briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To host a speaker or arrange for a consultation call (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  See more of their work at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and at  www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.



Understanding the Solid Relationship Between Israel and Russia

 

Photo Credit: The Times of Israel



This week marks the 73rd anniversary of the defeat of German Nazism and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin to mark the occasion.  Their diplomatic relationship - and the larger dynamic of Israel-Russia relations - are curious to so many Americans given the Russian patronage of Iran and the enmity between Israel and Iran.  For some perspective, I put the question to Dr. Stephen J. Blank, Senior Fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington D.C.  Dr. Blank is a historian of Russian foreign and military policies and his expertise spans the tsarist, Soviet and post-communist periods.  Ever generous with his time and expertise, he shared seven key reasons for what he called "the solidity of this relationship."

 

• First, Putin personally appears to have good feelings about Israel and Jews and Russian policy formally eschews anti-Semitism - though there is still a fair amount of  it in society and he is willing to use it in measured doses for his domestic needs. 

• Second,  Russian elite respect Israel's military-economic-technological prowess and know that Israel is a channel to Washington. 

• Third, there are thriving trade and investment relations between the two countries - even to the point where Israel has sold weapons to Russia. 

• Fourth, Israel respects Russian red lines and avoids actions that are provocative to her. If Israel has to cross a line it informs Moscow first.  This is something Putin et al. appreciate because it shows Israeli respect for Russian sensitivities and interests. 

• Fifth, Moscow knows that wars against Israel end badly for Arabs and bring the U.S. back into the Middle East in a big way. 

• Sixth,  there is some belief that the Russian Aliyah - the group of Russian Jews who have settled in and become citizens of Israel - is in some sense "our people" and they wish to preserve that tie.  They also understand what the USSR lost by pursuing anti-Semitic policies. 

• Seventh, it is critical to Moscow's Middle East policies and its sense of those policies that it be able to talk candidly to all parties and not be excessively identified with any one state's interests.  This also includes Israel precisely because of the many unsettled security issues in the region."

In hearing Dr. Blank's incisive comments I am reminded of the salient and sage words of another distinguished alumnus of University of Pennsylvania, Charles Dudley Warner, who observed that "[p]olitics makes strange bedfellows." 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm devoted to matters of international security.  Experts like Dr. Stephen J. Blank offer briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring analyses and understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To secure a speaker for your program reach out to  (203) 293-4741 or LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.   Learn more at  www.SecuritySpeak.net. 



Might "China Fatigue" Be a Factor for Kim Jong Un as the Supreme Leader Prepares to Meet President Trump in a Historic Summit?

Photo Credit: Daily Star



Twice in as many months we've learned of secret and surprise meetings between North Korea's Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un and China's President Xi Jinping, the more recent of which is taking place at the time of this writing and on the very day that U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a date and a venue have been decided for this historic Trump-Kim Summit.  This reminds me of the question I posed last month to Gordon G. Chang, author of NUCLEAR SHOWDOWN: North Korea Takes on the World, as plans for a summit were being explored.  I wanted to know if Kim Jong Un is aware of America's unique history and knack for turning enemies into prosperous and protected allies - Japan as the most obvious in North Korea's purview.  And, if so, how this might factor in to Kim Jong Un's thinking now that the major power heads of state are American President Trump for no more than two or six years, Russian President Putin for the foreseeable future and Chinese President Xi Jinping for life.  Could the narrow window of opportunity to "make a deal" with POTUS 45 be compelling to Kim?  His response:

 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm and speakers bureau devoted to matters of national, cyber and international security.  Experts in these areas offer reports, briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To host a speaker or arrange for a consultation call (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  See more of their work at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and at  www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.     







Regional Security Concerns and North Korea's Short and Intermediate-range Systems Weigh-in Heavily as President Trump Prepares for Historic Summit



Clear from President Trump's press conference yesterday is that his approach to his summit with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un is holistic and sensitive to the distinct concerns of American allies on and beyond the theater of the Korean Peninsula.  While the United States is vulnerable to North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles, allies like South Korea and Japan are vulnerable to the regime's increasingly mobile and precise short and intermediate-range rockets.  A curious addition to the North Korean arsenal was spotted on February 8th of this year at the Pre-Olympics Military Parade in Pyongyang.  Carried on hinged Transporter-Erector-Launchers (TELs - pictured below) was what appeared to be a variant of the Russian Iskander missile, perhaps now solid-fuelled for a faster, longer range and more agile version.  Any enhanced "shoot and scoot" capability for the North Koreans is particularly troubling to South Korea and worrisome for Japan.

Photo Credit: The Diplomat



It's been more than two months since the photo-op for for this new missile - dubbed the "Juche-Iskander" for it's distinctly North Korean innovations or renovations of the Russian prototype.  But we still don't know if this rocket is short or intermediate-range as it has not been flight-tested.  I wondered if this was part of Kim Jong Un's conciliatory pause in missile testing in advance of the Trump-Kim Summit or if there was something else in play.  I asked as much of Gordon G. Chang, author of Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the World, in my interview with him on April 14, 2018.  He replied:

I then pressed him to address the concerns in the context of the Trump-Kim Summit about this smaller and possibly non-nuclear missile that has military strategists concerned - beyond the worry of the damage it could do when priced-right and sold by North Korea in the global marketplace.  He responded:





More from my interview with Gordon Chang will be posted in advance of the Trump-Kim Summit.  In the interim, I urge you to follow him @GordonGChang and read his articles at www.TheDailyBeast.com.  See him live if you can or hear him on radio on The John Batchelor Show on 770 AM in the greater New York City area.  His talks, commentary and analyses are timely and cutting edge.

 

 

 Photo Credit: Lydia Chang

 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm and speakers bureau devoted to matters of national, cyber and international security.  Experts in these areas offer reports, briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To host a speaker or arrange for a consultation call (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  See more of their work at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and at  www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.   

 

Chemical Weapons in Syria: The North Korean Connection

 



This morning I was on my way to interview Gordon G. Chang on the upcoming Trump-Kim Summit when I heard the Pentagon briefing and commentaries on the strikes on Syrian chemical weapons arsenals.  Chief Spokeswoman Dana White emphasized that this operation was different from the 2017 strike on Syria's Shayrat Air Base in that it targeted Bashar al-Assad's production capability rather than his delivery vehicles.  General McKenzie detailed the contributions of British and French forces and noted that Russian air defenses were not deployed.  The European Union called on Russia and Iran to help stop future chemical weapons attacks by the Syrian government.  What I did not hear or read in any of the reports or analyses is the role of North Korea in the Syrian chemical weapons program.  Gordon Chang is the author of Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the World and a leading authority on North Korean, Chinese and regional military and security affairs.  On the eve of the 2016 Presidential election I heard him deliver a briefing entitled, The New Nuclear Nexus: China, Iran and North Korea. In it, he revealed the eye-opening extent of North Korea's strategic relationships with other autocratic regimes.  I jumped at the chance to ask him about the relationship between North Korea and Syria with respect to chemical weapons.  His response:



My full interview with Gordon Chang will be posted in advance of the Trump-Kim Summit.  In the interim, I urge you to follow him @GordonGChang and read his articles at www.TheDailyBeast.com.  See him live if you can or hear him on radio on The John Batchelor Show on 770 AM in the NY area.  His talks, commentary and analyses are always timely and cutting edge. 

 

 

 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm and speakers bureau devoted to matters of national, cyber and international security.  Experts in these areas offer reports, briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life.  To host a speaker or arrange for a consultation call (203) 293-4741 or email LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.  See more of their work at  www.SecuritySpeak.net and at  www.Facebook.com/PodiumTime.  Very special thanks go to Lydia and Gordon Chang for their ever-gracious efforts to keep the level of discourse on these critical issues at a high and dignified plane and to the Charles Dillon Public Library for providing the venue for Lisa Bernard's interview of Gordon Chang. 

 

 

 

 



Well Beyond Unnerving: The Poisoning of a British Citizen by Russian Agents

 

Photo Credit: Leader-Telegraph

The use of nerve agents against Russians-turned-citizens-of-democracies touches me personally.  In the mid-1980s, I served as the first Russian-speaking staff member and first Program Director at The Jamestown Foundation which worked to acculturate high-ranking Soviet and East European defectors into American society after their C.I.A debriefings. I was the point person for these brave men and women who lived under death sentences from the former USSR working to bring their insights to academics, policymakers, the press and concerned citizens by bringing forward their books, speeches, media appearances and Congressional testimonies.  As well, I worked with them to become United States citizens and live as openly and productively in our free society as possible for their circumstances and the realities of the Cold War.  We lost not one.  Now, at least in Europe, citizenship in a democracy is no longer an understood "hands off" to Russian operatives.  And the assassination methods are grotesque.  For the bigger picture of Putin's mob boss methods and crime syndicates, the following is a must read from Dr. Stephen J. Blank:

 

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/from-russia-with-hate

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm devoted to matters of security and crisis management. Experts in these areas offer briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring analyses and understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life. (203) 293-4741. www.SecuritySpeak.net. 





 

James Olson DECLASSIFIED: 90 Minutes with a Legend in CIA Clandestine Services



Last night in Waterbury, Connecticut, 350 seats filled with first responders, law enforcement and security professionals, FBI agents, members of the armed services, concerned citizens, educators, professors and students of government, political science, criminal justice and homeland security all gathered to hear James Olson, a "legend in clandestine services" as described by Robert Gates, former Director of Central Intelligence.  Mr. Olson, former Chief of Counterintelligence at the United States CIA, delivered Intelligence and the Terrorist Threat: How Far Have We Come Since 9/11? 

In a clever, three-part presentation, this spymaster turned master raconteur took his audience to a standing ovation with richly detailed and revealing "off-the-record" remarks, a robust Q&A session and a surprise third component of his time on stage that brought the house down.  With great podium presence, James Olson surveyed the nature of the terrorist threat to the United States from abroad and within.  With humility, his boyish charm and tremendous sense of humor, he made clear by examples the obscured yet pivotal contribution of intelligence gathering by clandestine agents.  He unveiled the exacting and multi-faceted training undergone by operatives of the CIA that prepares them in unimaginable ways for this unique path of public service that is anything but public.  Their careers  are hidden, inherently dangerous and typically unheralded. 

Impressive was how well James Olson knew his audience and seems to understand people in general.  His talk was chock-full of vivid anecdotes not only from his time in the field, but also from his own ongoing career and the unique challenges of marriage and parenting while stationed abroad for years under deep cover in service to our national security.  Heads were nodding and shaking in the audience throughout his formal talk.  His warmth and focus in informal chats before and following his podium time were meaningful to students, practitioners, faculty and a few fellow Cold Warriors who were delighted to reconnect.  I can see why James Olson is today a beloved lecturer on the art of espionage at Texas A&M University's Bush School of Government & Public Service.  He has my endorsement as one to invite to your firm, school or organization's next distinguished speaker series.

Thanks go to Post University whose student, Ben McKenna, took the lead with support from President Donald Mroz and Professor David Jannetty in hosting James Olson and securing the co-sponsorship of Brass Axe Capital, Crystal Rock, Holy Cross High School, Securitas, Powers Brennan Griffin, Triple Stitch, Post University Student Life and the Waterbury Police, Fire Department and PAL. 

Lisa Bernard is the President of SecuritySpeak, LLC, a consulting firm devoted to matters of security and crisis management. Experts in these areas offer briefings, talks and distinguished lectures to audiences of all types working to bring analyses and understanding of security matters to people in all walks of life. (203) 293-4741. www.SecuritySpeak.net.