To be sure, the reaction from people in and beyond Groton and New London,
Connecticut to the sighting of a Russian spy vessel sitting thirty miles off their
coast and the U.S. Naval Submarine Base last month spanned as wide as those in the Norman
Jewison comedy film, The Russians are Coming!
The Russians are Coming! Locals voiced
their concerns and opinions at a town meeting.
On Facebook, folks wondered if they should keep their children home from
school. Retired navy commanders, American
submariners, CT lawmakers and elected officials calmed nerves and offered threat
assessments and possibilities spanning the gamut from “this is nothing new” to “Putin
is testing the resolve of the new American President” to “yet another Russian
aggression.” A resident of coastal
Connecticut myself, I certainly noted the sighting and couldn’t shrug it off. After musing about it with a colleague, I went
to my local library for the DVD, The Russians are Coming! The Russians are
Coming! Curiously enough, there was quite
a wait list for the 1966 farce that parodies Cold War concerns.
Days ago, just as my turn to rent the DVD came up, that same ship, the
Viktor Leonov, was spotted twenty miles south of the U.S. Naval Submarine Base
Kings Bay in Georgia. That’s when I reached out to Dr. Stephen J.
Blank, internationally renowned authority on Russian military and foreign
policies, for a better sense of Russia’s motives in sending this 300 foot-long
ship with surveillance equipment that can intercept radar, radio and other
electronic signals. Unlike the guileless
submarine crew in the comedy, The Russians are Coming! the Russians aboard
the Viktor Leonov are not sneaking an irresistible and innocent “peek” at
America with wide-eyed curiosity. And “spying”
seems too vague a term to be useful to describe what it really happening as
this ship traverses our coast, albeit in international waters. As ever, Dr.
Blank’s informed analysis put it all in perspective and I share it with you
here:
The appearance of the Russian vessel off the US
submarine base at Kings Bay, Georgia is not merely another example of Russian
surveillance of our submarine capability or another attempt to send a
psychological message that its subs can get within striking range of the
continental United States. Rather it is also part of an evolving strategy
that appears to be intelligence and combat preparation for a possible
contingency of a protracted war with the U.S. when Russian subs will have a
mission of interdicting U.S. naval vessels and submarines en route to Europe
and/or cutting communication cables with Europe. If seen in tandem with
recent military moves, these submarine sightings, aerial, and naval probes
of the U.S. and our allies, suggests a mounting concern in Russia that
it will have to fight a protracted war with NATO. Indeed, the
scope of Russia's comprehensive information warfare against the U.S. and Europe
already indicates that Moscow deems itself to be in a "Cold War" type
scenario with NATO.
Dr. Stephen J. Blank is available for talks, lectures and briefings through Lisa Bernard's SecuritySpeak, LLC. (203) 293-4741. LisaBernard@SecuritySpeak.net.